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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • funniebucket funniebucket Jan 17, 2013 3:35 PM Flag

    does anyone have a MS account?...

    you can get some good info

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    • Thanks for the heads up, otherwise, I may not have read my own email.

    • bump

    • January 16, 2013
      Apple, Inc.
      Attractive Risk:Reward into
      Earnings
      Strong US demand should translate to iPhone/iPad
      upside and higher than expected gross margin.
      C1Q13 seasonality concerns are overblown and
      several catalysts exist through the remainder of
      2013, in our view. We see 6:1 upside to our base
      case of $714 vs. downside to our bear case of $450.
      We expect Apple to beat C4Q12 consensus revenue
      and earnings estimate of $54.6B and $13.35. We
      believe iPhone shipments drove the upside, as in-cell
      display and labor constraints eased and iPhone 5 supply
      improved through the quarter. Recent data from US
      carriers and our holiday survey suggest demand was
      stronger than expected. We also see modest upside to
      our 20M iPad unit forecast (cons. 22M) on the back of
      iPad mini strength.
      Strong iPhone sales could drive gross margin
      upside. We model like-for-like gross margin declines
      across Apple’s product lines due to higher costs early in
      product cycles. That said, mix could provide an
      offsetting tailwind, with every 1M iPhone unit upside
      adding 10-15 bps to gross margin, all else equal.
      C1Q13 iPhone shipment concerns are overblown, in
      our view. As constraints eased, iPhone suppliers built
      about 13M more units than we model in 2H12. If we add
      this inventory to the March build plans, we believe Apple
      can ship 40-45M iPhones in C1Q vs. current market
      expectations of 35M-40M. So, while it’s reasonable to
      expect conservative guidance given recent behavior, we
      believe our current estimates are ultimately achievable.
      List of potential catalysts growing: 1) iPhone launch
      in summer 2013 which could include a lower priced
      version, similar to iPad Mini, 2) new iPads, including
      iPad Mini with Retina Display around mid-year, 3)
      expanded carrier partnerships with T-Mobile in the US,
      NTT Docomo in Japan, and/or China Mobile in 2H13, 4)
      increased share repurchase (at current levels, every
      $5B buyback lowers share count by 1%).

    • Yes, I do. Are you referring to the 15 page earnings preview? My broker emailed it to me yesterday but I haven't read it yet. Maybe I should.

 
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