AT&T activated 10.2m phones during the quarter
Verizon activated 9.8m phones during the quarter
iphone sales at AT&T are 80% of phones sold
iphone sales at Verizon are 57% of phones sold (maybe higher this quarter)
AT&T iphones sold (10.2m x .80) = 8.16m
Verizon iphones sold (9.8m x .57) = 5.59m
Estimate Sprint sold 1.8m
Estimate Regionals sold 1.0m
Total US iphone sales = 16.55m
Assume that US sales are 33% of all iphone sales and international are 67%
(16.55m/.33) x .67 = 33.60m iphones sold internationally (conservative due to larger roll out)
Total iphones sold Q1 = 50.15m
Not all activation were new phones but I think that Verizon actually may have sold more iphones this past quarter than previous quarters and since Sprint has a LTE network with unlimited data plan the Sprint number may be higher. So this would equal out the non new phone activations.
Nice analysis. One other part of the equation is the number of iPhones that were upgraded, already existing customers. I know many wear waiting for the iPhone 5 to come out. You can add another 10% to your total.