with a 200 point drop already one would have to be a fool to short, and it has a low short ratio (one day). Up side a lot greater than downside=positive risk reward. With all the cash on hand an increase in dividend may be in the cards, announcement of China mobility possible, stock split possible, acquisition maybe, and earnings. Good to moderate earnings =100 any of the others good for $50. Bash away I am set.
sb positive, worry is about next qtr, not really this quarter. The so called supply cuts makes next qtr the issue. China Mobile is not being announced. Is too significant, that if an agreement was done, then an announcement would be required. I do believe it is getting closer, and Cook there was a great show of faith and reiteration of positions from the top guy. I expect an announcement closer to holiday of this year so China Mobile has for holiday and Chinese New Year. No split, no acquisition. Could do something with divi, but not likely. I believe this announcement will be about this qtr earnings and next qtr earnings. I did play the Jan 25 500 calls. I think with the Jan 19 options being so large, you saw that the traders closed it at 500 even. No one but those that sold the options won...hmmmm. Now with that pressure gone, this should move up 10-15 pts before earnings and then who knows...like I said is an earnings call about this qtr but moreso next qtr guidance. If they miss here, look out below, you will see 450
I don't think there is much doubt that they had a monster quarter and will beat handily. The question is how they manage expectations for q2. I think they need to dispel several rumors out there. First, the threat of margin compression. Any positive language about maintaining current margins moving forward or margin expansion (which should happen as we get farther from the massive refresh of all products last quarter) will be great for the stock and will have Milissa Lee and her meat-head shills #$%$ in their pants. Secondly, The bears have been talking about no new positive catalysts for 2013 as a reason to sell. But smart people know that there are a ton of products and catalysts coming out this year starting with the retina mini and ipad 5 in March leading into a iphone 5s in June, followed by an iphone 6 in November, probably an iTV in there somewhere in the fall, and of course the CM deal to be announced anytime in 2013. Not to mention anything else that the public doesn't already have a pretty good idea about. Oh, and of course the many ways they can deploy their massive war chest to create shareholder value -- especially with the new Controller from Xerox it look a lot more likely. Not any catalysts, huh? LOL! They have to allude to a full schedule of product launches in 2013 without giving any detail. They should also allude to the fact that they are exploring ways to create shareholder value. That will crush the bears as will as taking away the margin compression issue.
No excuse this Q for any kind of a miss. The last 2 Q misses were not that bad becuase they were tooling up for big upgrade cycle and this cycle had been predicted 6 months or more in advance. This Q simply must be great(lower margins not withstanding). Next Q must show improving margins which should help TC provide at least Flat YOY guidance. If not, we longs will have to hope for a China Mobile announcement soon because it will be dead money until that happens. If Apple supplies a 12-20% beat then the supply of stock will dry up altogether and the rally will be huge.