Here is why AAPL will post killer numbers for earnings
Apple doubles their EPS every Holiday Quarter
Obviously, it will not double this year.
Will growth come to a dead stop or reversal in just one year? Of course not.
So then, what is the worst that could happen? A more gradual deceleration. Mind you, that's WORST CASE.
Here are previous years EPS for Q1:
2010 $ 3.71
2011 $ 6.40
2013 $ ? ?
How much will growth drop from the current average of 94.5% ?
Let's cut that 94.5% in half to 47.25%.
And just for fun, lets clip off another generous 12.25%: 35%
Even if the increase is only 35% that would mean an EPS of $18.73 (analysts are estimating $13.41)
Ok, lets get VERY PESSIMISTIC now and cut 35% in half to 17.5%. EPS= $16.23
Ok, Let's say growth is 10%. Really? in one year we grow only 10%? Yes, let's just imagine only 10% growth. Then EPS=$15.27
If you are short, then you are expecting Apple to slow growth to only 3% OR LESS this year.
I certainly hope you're right, but an article in Bloomberg states that, due to production cuts and waning smartphone demand, net income might have slipped by 2 percent, or $13.48 a share. That would be terrifying; however, we have to be ready for that possibility as well.
The Bloomberg report made a calculation error. I commented the article to correct it.
The article states that if apple posts $13.48 EPS, that would be 3% below the previous year.
If Apple were to post EPS at $13.48, this would NOT constitute a 3% drop from last year.
The 2011 December quarter had 13 weeks of sales.
The 2012 December quarter will only have 12 weeks of sales.
if you compensate for the extra week, $13.48 EPS constitutes an increase of 4.66% year over year.