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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • matt.clientwork matt.clientwork Jan 23, 2013 10:22 PM Flag

    Opening Hour Tomorrow - Serious Discussion

    For serious traders - what are your thoughts about the morning gap and the first hour volatility?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • Matt, i think the margin line was a tell and troubling. Talk has been that their margins were getting squeezed and now we're seeing it. 2 reports back it was in the 44's, then the 40's, now 38.7. 6 margin pts is a lot of dough. Lower margins = lower net profits = lower eps. When Apple could do no wrong and slaughtered every earnings forecast, you paid a premium for the shares..

      That now has changed, and what helped drive their price to 700 was being a hedge fund darling. If you look at a 6 month chart into that 703 high, you could see it was unsustainable. WS rode it for all they could, pumped it hard, then dumpoed it hard. It's what WS does. There's a lot of money to be made in P&D's..

      I just don't know how you get back in here with hopes of a big upside until we see another ER to determine if this was an aberration OR the new Apple..

      • 1 Reply to golfrattt2000
      • Agreed. Margins has no where to go but down....the sooner apple swallows that reality that they have to come out with cheaper phones with lower margins to gain acceptance in EM, the better it is for the stock. Cook talks about China being its biggest market, but the chinese are notorious for protecting their own turf, there is no way apple goes in and an expect to extract so much profit out of China - they are going to nickle and dime apple on negotiations - and apple has to crack. And Apple foray into TV would be their biggest mistake yet. Apple has one catalyst for near term and that is to use their cash for share buyback.. That is the only catalyst I can see to move this stock much higher near term. Otherwise this will settle around $400 to $430 over next few months.

    • Anything in the $450, $460, $470 is a huge buying opportunity! They had the best quarter in history. No way it's going down from here.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • With three bad quarters, analysts are not going be merciful this time. -50 plus another 5% downside. Not only AAPL would get hammered, but SWKS, CRUS, TQNT, OVTI, GLW, FIO and QCOM will be down at least 4-6%. In general, the whole tech sector would be in red due to AAPL's heavy weight. Chip sector will suffer as well. It is going to be a bad day for sure.

    • Serious selling throughout the day. Nerve wrecking then on Friday it stabilizes around 435....From there it will hover for a while... Nothing in the cards to boost it...Everyone figured they would have a blow out earnings report due to holidays and maybe info about china mobile...didn't expect 1phone 5 returns and giving away free iphones in the cards plus no one bought ipods and the mini disrupted the ipad 4 rollout. Too muich confusion going on within

    • no question bounce to 480 then close around 410 forcing margin calls. This covers the gap in the 420 range. From there technical bounce to 480 then goodnight Irene.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Gap at 450 and straight down to 420 (on the dot). MM's will be able to rake in profits on knife catchers buying stock and optons. Gene Munster will be pleasuring himself to the sound of retail longs having their life savings wiped out one after the other. And over at CNBC Melissa Lee will be getting double fisted by Guy Adummy while the stock crashes.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • Hope to short more if this gets over 450 tomorrow.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • margin call smorgisborg short any sizeable pop through friday

    • Well, the morning trading is pretty much going to follow-up on the AH activity, there's no doubt about that. AH was pretty hefty on volume, coming in at almost 9 million shares, so perhaps one would think that that would take some of the steam out of the selling, but i think that the morning sell orders will pile in. But no doubt, the day will be very volatile. I don't think the share will close tomorrow at the AH low, however.

    • Imagine watching the iWatch commercial for the first time.......With so many new products coming to market and the cash hord apple has its tuff to dissmiss them. I long and will look at attractive buying points in the morning. And I know there is an audience of people willing to get an iWatch

      Sentiment: Buy

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