those calling for 350/share or even 270 and of course the best of them all "under 100"... Lets visit some facts:
Cash 137,000,000,000 = $145 a share (cash managed by Apple's personal hedge fund in Reno, Nevada)
At $450 that means currently 32.2% of this company's value is cash
At $350 that would mean 41.4% of the company is cash
At $270 that goes to 53.7%
This excludes dividends and even the $45-50 in earnings a year on top of it. This is a CLASSIC wall street attack simply to create volatility in the most widely held stock. Why did the stock fall? Year over year earnings were slightly lower (pennies). Revenue increased but earnings did not, clearly this is an issue of margin, which I agree fully with. The same is true of next quarter as estimates are lower year over year. However, in the third quarter the estimate year over year increases 12' Q3 actual was 9.32/share estimate 13' Q3 is 11.67 (25% increase).
The valuation at current price is ridiculous even if Apple never grew at all again. The growth chasers are running away because of Q1 and Q2 13 est/actual YOY "fall". However, this changes---and substantially I will add--in Q3 13' YOY. Rest assured by the time Q3 rolls around they will have already placed themselves back in this stock at these outrageous levels.
At 500B clearly you can't compound your company at 30-40% a year forever when you are this size. However, that does not justify the valuation of this company where it is...or where all the ridiculous prognosticators have placed it all day. Buy and be patient, over the years you will learn this is the best advice someone could give you. Push paper and feed in to the volatility at your own perils. When you make 54 Billion dollars in revenue in one quarter let me assure you, YOU ARE NO WHERE NEAR DEAD.
Sure... and I imagine it wasn't so very long ago you thought claims of $500, $450, or $400 to be equally ridiculous. Look, I understand your valuation argument above and don't dispute (most of) it. My point it simply that it didn't save AAPL from a sub $650, sub $550, and now sub $450 share price... what makes you so sure it will save them from sub $350?
Very nice essay on the value of the Cash. The only thing now is, that Cash is now Apple's demise...their arrogance over "holding so dearly" to it is costing them...the Street is actually punishing them for it now. I like your presentation, but i believe (truly) that there is a different metric in play now, and it is how they have mismanaged the Cash away from the shareholders which is the issue now. It was apparent from the Conference Call.
Cash is weighted so heavily because it is pure value. You can back that right out of the price. Apple's problem is how do you keep growing at the same clip, not a business model flaw.
They are generating cash at close to $50B a year.
To have a $100 stock with $200 in cash per share makes no sense. You can see that right? If not then may I buy all of your cash for .50 on the dollar?