MacWorld is of no consequence since Apple no longer participates in the event and hasn't since 2008; the show is all third-party gadgetry and software now. Your mention of this "other announcement" is of course only wishful thinking or fantasy, as the case may be.
The Microsoft lesson IS parallel to AAPL
1)Microsoft topped dec.1999 at $60.
-The price fall back into the range of 38.2%-67.7% of the top.
-It lost a max. of $39 from the top, exactly 1 year after breaking down from the top.
-Since then, all 12 years long, price oscillates between $21 and $37, exactly Fibo 38-63% of the top.
-On the way down, MSFT dropped in 5 months first to 50%, rebounded in 2 months 18%, and then dropped to bottom in 5 more months, to 38.2% of the alltime top.
2)AAPL topped at $700. If the above parallel holds:
-AAPL should fall by sept.2013 into the $440-264 range, bottoming at $264, and stay there for the next 12 years.
-on the way down, currently AAPL is at 5 months decline, this is best time for the first rebound,
from current bottom at $440,
-the rebound should last the next 2 months, upward 50% of the total drop of (700-440)*50%= 130, topping at 430+130=$560.
-From that point on, we might expect AAPL price continue to fall for 5 more months,
bottoming sept.2013 at $264.
If it follows the MSFT pattern. IF.
The psycology is pretty much the same.
And psycology is much more important factor than cash, PE, Bookvalue, etc;
simply because almost ALL Apple investors are underwater. Just like MSFT investors, in year 2000.
MSFT PE is now 14. Apply that to aapl and you get over 700 price target.
Also MSFT PE was above 70 before it collapsed.
In a couple of years they will probably have more than 264/share in cash alone
Your price and comparison dont make any sense. You are not comparing the same things
Also average revised PT for aapl is 647 for next year.
with a catalyst like share buy back, divident increase, ITV, and CM that PT will be much higher