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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • coffeebook1 coffeebook1 Feb 2, 2013 2:50 PM Flag

    If 435 was NOT the bottom ? why did it shoot back up from 435 ? Why do people think it can go lower ?

    If 435 was NOT the bottom ? why did it shoot back up from 435 ? Why do people think it can go lower ?

    Please be rational.

    I am long AAPL.

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    • No, 500 was not the first leg down. It reached that mark after hitting highs around 700 in Sept, which was a false number to begin with. Just as stocks oversell on the way down, they also get over bought on the way up. In this case the Street over bought by a % that far exceeded the aver. 20% in over-buying so to speak, as a result the downside was that much more dramatic. There are no factors in the equation that were not present before, 1. ability to properly manage supply chain 2.inability to utilize cash properly 3. instead of creating a new story, they simply skirted by with a another version of the "same " product which had terrible reviews
      4. they face tremendous competition like they never have before.
      5. the idea of the iphone as being the "cool" phone to have is diminishing by the fact that their are far superior options in the market, Samsung is just one one them, look at LG's latest which is a step above Samsung for the time being
      6. Steve Jobs was the sizzle in the steak for a number of years, now it's just another piece of steak
      Bottom line: Sex Sells, and there's very little "Sex Appeal" about this play right now! Less

    • stocks typically do not make their bottom on the first leg down. When distribution takes place it usually over-shoots by about 20% "by rule of thumb" before retesting a new bottom. AAPL came in from 510 down to 435 before bouncing to the 460 area and is now back in distribution mode. This sell of has nothing to do with fundamentals and everything to do with Accumulation vs. Distribution.
      In order for AAPL to recover to any great extent, you will need to see a large number of Institutions that will step to the plate to not only absorb the current selling/Distribution, but be able to but their way through that. And with no real catalyst on the Horizon, the stock will more than likely see new lows before moving back to the 500 mark.
      The problem is that everyone and their brothers always held AAPL to the highest of standards in terms of innovation and growth, and with growth projections now being collared by Corp. and no new game changers on the immediate horizon it looks more and more like dead money. The Street also views all of the cash on hand as a negative not positive. Don't believe that, then look at AMZN and you'll understand why. AMZN spends and re-invests every dime they can every chance they get and the stock continues to power through new highs. The Street cares about growth and innovation, not money on a foreign bank account. I would write calls against any long position you might have to help lower your exposure until they can turn this around. Unfortunately it takes a really strong tide to turn a vessel of this magnitude. Best of luck.

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