Earnings will be cut further to $39/share. as with hewlette and dell and with rimm and others, when you are selling a commodity you are selling something that alot of other companies are selling too. the uniqueness of apple's products have been lowered to commodity status. apple is no longer "all that cool" like when jobs was clicking out new inovations each year for 5 years straight. now that we've identified apple as a commodity seller, a price to earnings ratio (p/e) of 8 or 9 would be accurate. apple is no longer growing earnings, it's now in earnings shortfalls from prior year's same quarters. 8 or 9 p/e ratio for a non grower is over generous here. attach a p/e of 9 x $39 and you get your $351 price target. it's really quite simple. if they happen to beat this and turn in $41 then 9 x $41= $369. it would take a quarter of $49 to attach current market pricing to apple's stock. it's simply too high. Earnings will be lowered and forcasts dropped by apple in this quarter and next. not until q3 and q4 will you see apple turn in seqential quarterly earnings beats and that won't be much when you compare to last year's results. the soonest that apple gets out of this down trend is q4 and early next year/2014. that's being realistic. and if they don't invent something special real soon, samsung and kawai and others will just leap frog apple and price apple right out of their market. it will happen!!! So imagine what you wish. this is not steve's company any more and it's lacking "creative" innovation. anyone can creat...i can design a watch or sunglasses with chips in them too, they still have to be cool enough for the market to accept them and then it has to be super cool to hold their attention for more than a month or two. cute is not going to do it, apple!!!
Most stocks don't trade rationally nor are they always predictable. AAPL is such a stock that defies simple categories. It's not simply a tech company. Apple is not a commodities company because it doesn't really sell anything anyone needs to survive like oil or soy beans. Apple is not a value company because of its low PE, dividend, and balance sheet. Apple has many revenue streams and looking at handset sales alone is missing half the picture since iphone only generates about half the revenue. In the future, most phones will have similar features. The prize, the money is in software. Apple and many other app developers are chasing this goal: to produce the killer app for all handsets that will change everything. This app will let you do things like make your wallet obsolete. This is cool. It will come soon and will generate more money than handset sales. As talked about in other comments, Apple is dedicated to innovation, no stock price, not shareholders in particular, nor anything else other than making the best products in the world. As long as Cook is at the helm driving the company towards this goal, I'm in the stock. Innovation doesn't come annually. Breakthroughs don't happen overnight. Revolutions come in fits and starts, ebbs and flows. If any company in the world can make the next great product that everyone will want, my bet is Apple.
The way I see it, my look at the charts agree with with your target, however, I think your view that apple is just another commodity may be off base, they have a good mix of quality products and services, with an impressive record of creative innovation, which is the core of apple, something, the other companies lack, the other companies may have the ability to manufacture, but lack the ability to deliver and offer the top line of support and services apples customers demand, I was anti apple, until I started using one, it was then I discovered they made a quality product that allowed me to get my work done, rather then work to run my computer, by fighting everything from blue screens to endless updates and fixes.
If your target turns out to be the floor, it may be the bottom of the floor with an up direction
We will have to wait for product news, but I would not want to quess what the products would be.
I do not think a watch would would be a time piece, alone
My my you sound very unconvincing even as you try to convince yourself of your folly. You also sound very insecure in your pathetic attempt to justify such ignorance. If you have put $ behind your failed analysis you will certain lose it. A poor clueless investor(gambler) indeed.
Many AAPL bulls don't understand that AAPL needs to be leaps and bounds above any competitor to hold its stock price. Try going to AT&T and price out a no contract iPhone vs. Samsung. You will notice that iPhone will cost $100 more. This means AT&T is subsidizing $100 more for iPhones than other handsets. If AAPL is just cranking out 4" iPhone4S (AKA iPhone5), AAPLs popularity will fall and the extra subsidy will go away. T-Mobile already fired the first warning shot by taking away subsidies later this year. In other countries where there are no phone subsidies, iPhone is getting their #$%$ kicked so this extra subsidy is very important to AAPL. AAPL can only keep this extra subsidy if iPhone is way cooler than other phones.
AAPL took advantage of their coolness and negotiated contract very favorable to AAPL with vendors, service providers, and app developers. If you make an app that makes money like GOOG search app, AAPL requires that you share your income generated from the app with AAPL.
That said, it is not like AAPL can thrive with a happy duopoly with Samsung. If Samsung can put a reasonable challenge to AAPL, AAPL's negotiating power with partners and vendors will be significantly reduced. That will hit AAPL's top and bottom line down the road.
What about Blackberry, HTC or another Chinese brand? Samsung is trying to position itself next to Apple to justify high margins for its Galaxy phones. It's not really competing against Apple as much as it is trying to squash the Chinese competition that costs far, far less than Samsung. The fight is for market position in China and India where most of the growth will be in the next couple of years. Samsung's strategy is that if it can win in the U.S., it will leverage it's brand prominence in emerging markets. It's trying to copy Apple. But Apple really did revolutionize the mobile phone industry among others. Samsung just followed. Will the Chinese pay a lot more for a Galaxy 4s vs the HTC one? If the Chinese government get involved and levy tariffs or other trade and retail restrictions on foreign phones to help its domestic manufacturers, the answer is no. The world is not as simple as just looking at vendor subsidies and prior agreements. We need to look at the overall picture and as the Great One said, "Skate to where the puck will be." Apple will be in China and India.
So.... everyone was on the crack pipe when the stock was at 700.... and Cash in the bank of 150b.... (No other company in the world has that amount of cash)........ taking the 150b in cash and giving it you John I would imagine you can make 10% on that money right...... so go ahead and add another 15b to your numbers