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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • crestrider7 crestrider7 Mar 20, 2013 12:41 PM Flag

    Some Simple Realities ...

    Technically,the stock remains in a solid downtrend.Yoy can delude yourself all you want to the contrary.
    Fundamentally,the company has missed twio straight quarters.Miss this one and the 300"s are the next stop. The competition is clearly making serious inroads on all fronts. The longs can dismiss the Samsung's all they want. Their products are being well received by the consumer. The sales confirm that.
    Per a dividend increase? Probably coming. But remember 75% of their cash is oveseas. So a big increase is not likely. Stock buyback?? The last refuge of a desperate management. If you see that,then the lights are really going to go out. Do your homework. Watches and T.V.'s are very low margin items.. Going "cheaper" phones for the China etc. masses is also very low margins/ Margins are already contracting.Even before entry into the above mentioned areas. Any further contraction in the next earning's report and that will not be good. For sure.
    Is the mystique gone vfor Apple?? Yes. The company is now a commodity product driven entity. That's a very tough,high competition market place. And from the looks of things so far,management is not up to it.

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    • you need to ask yourself
      (1) does samsung phone face more competition from other android vendor than apple faces from samsung
      (2) if margin is an issue for apple, is margin is soon an issue for sanmsung as well?
      (3) if too big is an issue for apple, is this also an issue for samsung, which is supposed to have bigger smart phone market share?
      4) then you need to check what is the pe number of samsung and what is the pe number of apple

    • I agree 100%. As a trend trader-I couldn't care less about any fundamentals of the company. But the bottom line is right now the trend of the stock price is still lower & until that changes, there's no reason to be long the stock.

    • Many good points but buyback is hardly a desperate act (see BAC); in fact it is highly tax efficient use of cash when PPS is unreasonably low.
      Samsung Apple phone duopoly is also not such a bad thing for either company.
      Second half of this year you will need to reverse your negativity, right now being out of aapl is not such a bad idea.

    • andrew2d@ymail.com andrew2d Mar 20, 2013 1:41 PM Flag

      Apple is a system innovator and has an echo system to prove it. Samsung sells the commodity gizmos mostly cloned from Apples ideas. Their income stream ends once the phone is sold. What you are missing is that Apple's income stream begins at the sale of the product. Apple has several income streams not just one. The Ios is very proprietary and Android is not, thus Android is more of a commodity. Samsung is facing the onslaught of every Chinese and his mother that can say "Android" . There must be at least fifty vendors that have cellphones and tablet pcs based on the Android in Asia. What barrier to entry does Samsung have other then price?

    • I think you're right in the near term but I will be a buyer at $375 b/c Apple will reload the pipeline with innovation...also it's only a matter of time until a truly vicious malware attacks the horribly insecure Android world and Apple is seen as the paragon of security again greatly boosting mobile device sales.

    • they "missed" on what exactly the last 2 quarters? they beat EPS by $.34. get your facts straight, basher.

      • 1 Reply to bronzeprince9
      • "bronzeprince" Are you related the the former "bronzeage ..." blah,blah.blah? The company missed Street expectations. And that was the second quarter in a row. And the stock price collapse highlighted the growing concerns regarding Apple''s "super growth story". The realization has set in rather dramaticaly that Apple is coming back to the pack. Competition is real and is forminable. The sector sales numbers,especially from Samsung confirm that.Keep convincing yourself that all is well. It has served you well since $705.

    • I agree with you when you said "The company is now a commodity product". Many people don't understand that AAPL was able to draw huge profit margins because of its 'uniqueness.' The aapl products were perceived as premium and only the executives could afford it but now everybody has it. When the product becomes a commodity, it looses its uniqueness.

      Do you get excited to buy new toothbrush, soap or a toilet paper?

    • When Apple misses its own guidance I will be worried. The bar for Apple kept getting set higher and higher because the company made analysts look like fools for so many quarters. I am concerned about the supply chain issues and Samsung is a greater threat now due to a combination of marketing and hardware, but the analyst have yet to conclude accurate numbers from the supply chain check and Apple continues to outsell Samsung taking into account the company only sells three phones. Take Samsung's top three vs Apple and its not even close.

    • In addition,there is a great deal of conjecture as to whether Apple will join the M&A circuit and bu someone. Be veeeeery careful of that tact. It they go out and make a mistake there ie. HP's disasterous ploy - the stock sees significantly lower prices.Significantly. So be careful what you wish for in that catagory.

    • YOU KNOW NOTHING! they beat guidance! They only missed the streets estimate which was over aggressive. Plus they only missed the streets estimate on earnings and beat their estimate on profits. You're full of it. Go do research.

      • 1 Reply to thqisbankrupt
      • LOL You longs are sooooo easily threatened. Firstly,they missed Street estimates.Period. And that is the standard that they are held to.Like it or not And say again please.They missed earnings but beat on profits. I thought profits wereincome ie. earnings. No?/
        No body knows anything but you hysterical longs. On every day defending the indefensib. You claim that I know nothing. But I wasn't the one who just took a 35% decline to my equity..You did. So,who knows nothing?? I did my researh in the high 600"s. How about you?/ Because if you had you would have realized that there was serious issues ie. contracting margins - rapidly charging competition - lack of new and truly innovative products (not rehashed phones for the cult suckers,. AAPPL stock went down for all the right reasons. And that is that the fundamental were deteriorating.
        So spare me the junior high trash talk. And full ot it?/ Right know what you seem very full of is trying to rationalize why you just took a 265 point loss. Or was it that you have week after week lost all of Mommy's money playing options.

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