There is no deal yet, it's still a WSJ rumor, though a deal does seem imminent. BUT, what are the details of the deal? We know China Mobile was pushing for a fairly hefty discount, did they get it? Apple requires a commitment to unit sales and advertising dollars, did they get it? We first need a deal, then we need details of the deal to determine if it is good for Apple and, assuming it is good, how good? Hard to price in much without any idea of what the ultimate deal will be and it is likely that there will be give and take on both sides for the deal to get done. If Apple gets the standard commitments and doesn't give a discount,, big upward spike, if Apple gives discounts and takes a margin hit, well maybe not so much of an initial spike.
China Mobile needs Apple just as much if not more than Apple needs China Mobile. They didn't build their 4G network just to run Samsung phones or cheap phones made by the Chinese companies. They are losing market share to their competition because of lack of iPhones, and not lack of cheap phones. This network license grant was planned by the Chinese government to give China Mobile a boast over their competition. If they don't have the iPhone, this 1st license grant won't do them any good and their competition will come back stronger than ever. When the 4G network launches, it will be with the iPhones. That preorder was a test of customer iPhone preference that they did the other day to lock in the details of the Apple commentment. So Apple's concessions, if any, are minimal; I would expect that the deal is similar to the other Chinese carriers deals. In their preorder test, China Mobile wanted to see a financial commentment from their customer base to go forward with the deal under Apple's terms. They obviously got their numbers very fast within a few hours.