Makes absolutely no sense whatsoever, manipulation at its finest
Let me get this straight...
the "pre-orders" was only 100K... with the phone not even releasing till Jan 17th... so they decide to tank this from 570 to 530s
then news comes out that Dec is recordbreaking App revenue, that Samsung has taken a hit on profits (first in 9 qtrs) because of Apple competition, and now that China Mobile is reducing iphone prices to keep up competition (aka increasing subsidizing so more iphones will be sold)
and this continues to go down or break even at 540?
"the "pre-orders" was only 100K..."
Yep, and even the greenest of rank amateurs looking at APPL know with certainty that the rumors of 100K "pre-orders" was nothing more than a bunch of chakoffs spewing bullzhitt, and that the CHL sites were only taking reservations to ensure being able to pre-order once pre-ordering has begun, which it has not.
But the financial blog hooers creaming in their drawers over their penny-per-click bonanzas just had to muscle home the falsehood that the 100K were simply reservations, and not orders, in their effort to satisfy their ppimps and help manipulate the share price.
Blame TC silence for all this. If he hadn't pre announced last Q then his silence about this Q would have meant nothing. Alas that is not the case. I am not convinced that this will not be a blow out Q but I think the odds are against it because of the TC silence. I think this is what the street is focused on now. A big opening day of sales from CM on 1-17 would change perception.
One more thing to keep in mind. If Apple beats on the bottom line but not the top it will be a disappointment.
We have .50 to.60 in earnings due to lower share count. Forward guidance after TC has 10 days of CM data will decide where we go from 1-27.
Your logical argument fails because Cook is ALWAYS silent. He can't or won't talk about these matters. He should or he should have someone else counter the B.S. but he never does. Thus, logical arguments like yours fail because of TC's behavior