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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • zzed1 zzed1 Mar 14, 2014 2:51 PM Flag

    Why are people so sure Apple will do well?

    Here is what I am seeing:
    Apple is losing market share to Android.
    Android is growing much faster than iOS.
    My own children who had iPhone 4S's switched to the Samsung Note 3 in December. They could pick ANY phone they wanted on the Sprint network. They loved the iPhone 4S, but when they saw the NOTE 3 it was 'GAME OVER' It is just way too nice. Have you actually held one and looked at the big bright screen? It has a high capacity user replaceable battery, it has 3GB of Ram, it has 32GB of Storage, it has a full HD Ameoled screen. Just look at one before you assume Apple phones are superior.

    Now, I had an Apple II that I loved and I always will have a soft spot for Apple, and this message is not personal, there is no grudge. I want the best to succeed. We all want that.

    Now, I do not understand why the CEO has told people who disagree with his political or environmental or religious philosophy to sell their stock or not buy Apple stock. That strikes me as arrogant and the 'kiss of death' for a company. He is forgetting that he works for the SHAREHOLDERs. His personal preferences should NOT determine how Apple spends money it is Shareholder money.

    Also, Microsoft is planning to distribute its Phone Operating system for FREE in order to compete with Android and with iOS. This will also decrease Apple's market share with more competitors selling phones.

    Tim Cook says he is not planning to compete in India against inexpensive smart phones, which may be the largest Smart Phone market in the world. How can Apple thrive if it chooses to not compete and is being out grown by Android, Windows 8, and who knows what else?
    Tim Cooks exact quote was: "I'm not going to lose sleep over that other market, because it's just not who we are." This sounds more political than business like.

    So I cannot figure out why so many people assume Apple should go up instead of going down. Let me know if any of my points are incorrect and if so WHY?

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    • What are you talking about. Most feel apple will not do well in the future as shown by the price action of the stock.

      • 1 Reply to law_trader99
      • Based on the thumbs up vs. thumbs down of my comment discussing why Apple's market capitalization should increase or not based on their lack of competitive advantage in some of their key markets I have come to the conclusion that actually 75 percent of the responders believe Aapl will go up and only 25 percent believe it will go down. Of course this is typically a contrarian indicator!

    • And all these people buying the Note 3 and s4's will be buying larger-screen iPhones in the next 2 yrs

    • zzed, good points! I am scaling out of AAPL but wishing it would pop to high 500s to unload more. My iphone has glitches and too many stupid updates and changes. also expensive...

    • More reasons: Without iPhones, Apple's would still be more profitable than GOOG. Still, Apple absolutely needs to find a new way to make money. IPay should be a huge success with their 700 million credit card subscribers which is larger than anyone else in the world. Have you seen Visa, Mastercard,DiscoverCard, etc? They are making tons of money and are among the top performing stocks of the past 3 years. This will be a larger boost than most think. The iWatch should be a small success also bringing in billions but not a game changer. Also, iTV will also bring in significant revenue but nothing like prior products. CarPlay and iBeacons have already been announced which will only help revenue and build their ecosystem. Combined, these products will have a large impact on Apple's success. I also predict that Apple will use their billions to purchase back more stock (inflating EPS) and lowering their already paltry PE ratio. Long story short, Apple is one of the few companies that sandbags their earnings which will be reflected in future quarters.
      Using any metric ie PE, PEG, ROI, etc, AAPL has no rival. And for those that argue that they have stopped growing, I can prove that through conservative accounting and accounting changes, AAPL is still growing substantially every year. (Once again, deferred revs, $21 tax, etc)
      Despite my belief in these products, Apple's growth story will NEVER be the same, but nobody can continue to grow at that pace. Instead, i will gladly take an increase of 13% in stock value (inc div) through 2015 with potential upside which is my prediction.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Fair question. However, market share is only part of the picture.IDC showed that 80% of Android market share are junk phones that use Android but they are not capable of running games, app's as these older versions of Android are not upgradeable.More important is profit share where the iphone was estimated to have earned 87% of smartphone profits. With an ave.Selling price of $637,the average ASP of other smartphones is around $250. Now that is not to say that many new quality phones at lower prices are not available, but Apple clearly dominates the high end market. However, I agree that saturation is approaching which will hurt Apple's number, but brand loyalty and superior ecosystem will help Apple remain on top. Not to mention,Samsung is now testing their new OS system (Tizen) which will likely reduce the number of Android phones. Samsung is large enough and powerful enough to introduce a new OS which will not only be seen in phones, but in appliances, cars, etc.Regarding the note 3, it is no doubt a beautiful phone, but a bit impractical for adults (men).The screen is superior to iphones (except screen lag), battery replacement is nice, and 3gb is nice.However despite these "on paper" superior specs, users report problems with battery life and lack of storage. (this is another story) Still, the note 3 is an excellent option. But comparing the 4S is not fair is the 5S is a huge upgrade.
      Regarding Apple, if you simply look at their numbers they have $160 billion in cash and equivalents,they repurchased over 100 million shares which inflates EPS, they added $12 million in cash last quarter alone, they have over $11.5 billion in deferred revenue (profits not yet recognized),$22 billion in recognized taxes that will never be paid.This $22 billion could also have been considered op. profit if they elected to do so but would have needed to pay taxes on this money.If you take out the iphone, Apple's profits would have landed them as the #13 tech company in the world

    • Easy, Samsung is garbage, bad quality, breaks within a year, 2 max, it's like throwing away money my friend.

    • Please read: "Apple Delves Deeper into Motion-Sensing Technologies" (Patents) from CheatSheet. from this morning; 8:43AM EDT Take a look. It's not all about iPhones.

    • bag_and_hold_investing bag_and_hold_investing Mar 14, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

      Buying AAPL at these prices (or lower if you bought 6-9 months ago) is like buying MSFT at $20 a couple of years ago. MSFT has been buried and left for dead hundreds of times over. The same arguments being thrown at AAPL were thrown at MSFT. "Ballmer is no Gates", "The PC is dead", "MSFT is now a utility company", etc. Quietly over the last two years MSFT has grown the business, bought back shares, and increased the dividend. The stock gone from low-20's to $38. Including dividends that would have netted an investor a %100 gain. This idea that AAPL is dying when it generated more money than XOM last year is outlandish. Look at not only earnings but free cash flow. AAPL is buying $60 billion of its own shares without putting a dent in its financial position. All AAPL needs is one new product like the iWatch to fill the gaping hole left by the obsolescence of the iPod and it will return to growth. Then the stock will go up and every naysayer will change their opinion. Your opinion like so many others is being affected by the share price. People make money on Wall Street following the herd. People get rich by being a contrarian. I'll stick with iCahn on this one and keep the long-term view.

    • Cook is only part of the problem, WS controls the price of AAPL due to options. this is a fact and everyone knows it. You can post different ideas to make you feel better or justify the action, but the bottom line is its all about "money" at the end.


    • calls_them_as_i_see_thern calls_them_as_i_see_thern Mar 14, 2014 5:08 PM Flag

      There are many reasons to expect Apple to do well. Apple is an innovative company that keeps bringing new ideas to the market. Without Apple there would be nothing resembling the iPhone & iPad on the market. They didn't actually invent the products but they developed the products and keep making them better. Samsung is a copy cat and when they do something that they call innovative, it is deemed uncool or unneeded by the users. Samsung excells at the low end of the market where the most competition and the least profits exist.

      Apple's ecosystem is the best there is. Their products all work together cohesively.

      CarPlay is the latest idea and the most expensive cars will utilize this option. There will be new product accouncements soon.

      Apple just recently announced opening new stores in India. I guess there are some people there that want iPhones as well. In Brazil they are selling the older phones as their introdouctory phone.

      With all their cash they can buy as much growth as they deem necessary. I have full faith in Cook as CEO that he will not go out and spend all that cash on one or two existing businesses. Google bought Motorola for too much money and will end up writing most of that investment off after losing money in that enterprise. Cook is much more frugal with our money.

      There are many more reasons why Apple deserves a much higher price, but It's pointless trying to convince someone who is obviously trying to stir something up.

      • 1 Reply to calls_them_as_i_see_thern
      • "Stir something up"? This is supposed to be an investment board to exchange ideas. You should welcome opinions that are contrary to yours. I'm long this stock but am more concerned lately. Bugs the #$%$ out of me that cook still doesn't have a larger screen iPhone. Sick of my s3 but I refuse to buy the 5s due to the smaller screen. Bought the chromecast over Apple TV due to price difference and am happy with it. Would never buy another PC after owning my MacBook Pro. I don't lose sleep over day to day market share swings but my confidence in cook just is declining every month. I'm ok with him spending their cash prudently, but his comments at the shareholder conference shook me. Not sure why he thought it would be funny to joke about talking about revealing new products. Not ready to sell but I'm certainly not adding to my position today....maybe late summer as the iPhone 6 release gets closer.

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