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Apple Inc. Message Board

  • change_up change_up Dec 10, 1997 10:54 AM Flag

    My thoughts - Part One

    OK, nobody asked me but.... (apologies ahead of time to anyone who doesn't want any sanity on this board.)

    I've been following you all for a while now, since back when the number of posts was down under 100. Today, I opened my mouth (fingers) for the first time because "tamper" crossed a line into the realm of rudeness, and now I will share my humble thoughts and be gone.

    I own AAPL. I also own a Mac. My third. I read this board because I am a stockholder. The company will, in the end, survive and prosper or fade away because of the most basic of business tenets: SALES. Pure and simple. Those of you who want to
    make it more complicated than that remind me of PC owners and the sales clerks at most computer stores (with their pocket protectors) - "it's not any good and it's no fun unless it's complicated." Well, it's not. It is, perhaps sadly, very simple. Sell product, make money. Debt status, cost of doing business, R&D, and a lot of other factors can and do effect the bottom line short term, but in the LONG RUN, sales are pretty tough to beat, and tougher yet to survive without.

    There are a lot of wolves (bashers) in sheep's clothing (No really, I'm a nice guy with an opinion) on this board. They seem to serve no purpose other than serving as launch vehicles for endless tirades. I used to get excited when the posts would pile up, now I can hardly stand to wade through the rhetoric.

    To Be Continued, Next Post...





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    • catfish_dan_da_catfish_man catfish_dan_da_catfish_man May 2, 2009 12:58 PM Flag

      AMAZE ZINGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!

    • We're getting off the subject, which is Apple, but the dart thing is an on-going series of articles from the wall street journal.

      I've also read it in a book. I can't remember which one... was it "What Works on Wall Street"? Maybe it was "Investing for Dummies". :-) It wasn't one of Graham's books.

      Finding 50 or 60 years of dart throwing, will, on average, statistically, yeild the market average. Just check the S&P 500.

    • Lajoie said:

      "Mr. Lynch's lifelong average was a percent or so above the S & P.
      I believe he could have gotten similar results by astrology, or by throwing darts per random
      walk... "

      Show me Peter Lynch's lifetime average, then show me 50 or 60 years of dart throwing.

      Where are the books of this famous, random dart?

      Anyway, I use the monkey picks over darts any day : )

      GO AAPL!

      -kstar

    • Mr Lynch picked stocks by picking products he liked. This was, essentually, random. Odds are that any selection of random picks will: 1) be close in results to that of the S & P 500 and 2) will beat most of the fund managers out there most of the time.

      Mr. Lynch's lifelong average was a percent or so above the S & P.
      I believe he could have gotten similar results by astrology, or by throwing darts per random walk...

      The problem with random stock picks is that, if you only have a few of them, they can deviate a great deal from the average. Sometimes this can work for you, but some times it will work against you.

      Apple is such a case where I think, based on the balance sheet, that it will work against you.

    • gee willakers, i hope i'm never a failure like peter lynch.

    • well said changeup, you may have found a message by me of a similar tone back a way. (perhaps you should, at the beginning, have said "any more sanity" instead of any sanity, thereby avoiding the possible implication that there wasn't any sanity.
      i gave credit to kstar a few messages back for admitting an error (of small consequence) with the thought that there were too few people who do it. there can be something learned from people with disputes, there are almost sure certainties that can be set when disputants can agree on something (especially when one concedes the validity of the others argument when it occurs.)
      i'm still waiting for responses from lejoie and tamper to earlier postings, which i thought were corteous and informative (and of course correct). I GUARANTEE WHEN I'M WRONG (never,gggg), I'LL BE RIGHT BACK HERE ADMITTING IT.

    • Continued...

      What's going to matter here are issues like sales figures, a new CEO, new technology, new advertising, new marketing campaigns, new software alliances, inter-company squabbles in the computer business, publicity, etc. The actual BUSINESS of creating, building, marketing, and selling computers and related equipment. All of that goes directly to the eventual health of the company

      If I were King for just one day, I really would decree that this board be reserved for AAPL owners, who can share such info, project long term investment growth or shrinkage, trade inside information (one would hope that some of the people on here would
      actually work in Cupertino, or have inside sources - that's the kind of information I want). And no, I don't think it's unhealthy to be homogenous in this respect. We all belong to groups, clubs, or simply gravitate toward people of like interests. I don't feel it's necessary to invite uneducated smelly cretins to dinner at my house simply because my wife and our friends are intelligent, witty, and have showered recently.

      kstar may be a cheerleader (oh you are, and don't be ashamed - the others who get their jollies out of being negative can't enjoy life as much as you do, kstar. Your glass is half full, folks like lajoie and tamper... their glass seems to have fallen
      off the table and broken, and it really pisses them off that you're actually HAPPY to have a glass that's half full) but kstar at least is productive, insightful, and willing to focus on core issues, as long as the "PC Missionaries" (credit to someone who used that term a few days ago, it's right on) stay off the board with the "grafitti" (credit again, same guy I think) they like to spray paint around.

      If those of you who actually own AAPL, and believe in the long term viability of the company, just ignored the guys who get their fun out of stirring shit up, you could just go on talking business, tracking kstars projections, trading inside info, or commiserating if it all doesn't happen the right way.

      I'm prepared for either eventuality. It wouldn't be the end of the world. I'd lose some money, but worse would be the personal loss. We'd all be losing a friend, which is why I suspect we all want to rally around to boost that friend's chances. Anyone who has their entire future on AAPL is, I'm afraid, even more foolish than someone who has their entire future on any one stock, or the stock market in general.

      This is a group of believers, a community if you will, of folks who don't follow the norm and who actually kind of like being different. In a lot of other places, those types of people get a lot of shit from the rest of the community (spray painted slurs, burning crosses, you know the stuff) because they make the insecure uncomfortable. That's the only way I can rationalize the ferocity of the "truth seekers" who love to get on here and bash kstar and the others.

      Wow. Sorry... Just my story and I'll stick to it.....

      • 4 Replies to change_up
      • You would reserve this "board" for Apple owners? I presume you mean owners of Apple company stock, long, short and option owners and not Apple Computer owners. The implicit topic is Apple company stock.

        But it would appear that you would only allow positive post. I find that incredible. If I was owning a stock long, and someone noticed something BAD about the holding and had numbers and figures to back it up, I'd sure like to know about it! The idea
        is to enrich ourselves (money wise) from a free exchange of information, not to have a rah-rah board that dupes potential investors into making uninformed decisions for the purpose of continuing a company that has a long history of bad business decisions.

        Your advice to ignore the simple algebra of the business case of the Apple company shows complete contemp for wise and informed investing.

      • I couldn't agree with you more! If you can't keep sales growing, all the cost cutting in the world won't keep you out of Chapter 11!

        Right now Apple has a very simple competitive advantage: NO YEAR 2000 PROBLEMS! And don't tell me as I was told today by an Apple salesperson .... we already know that! NO ... it's not the Apple lovers we are interested in .... it's the potential NEW Apple lover we are after!

        I can't for the life of me figure out why companies are so arrogant in thinking they don't have to drum up sales when they have a good product ... it will sell itself! Hogwash! That kind of psuedo intellectual mentality is why Apple is in the situation it is in!

        It's SALES stupid ... if I'm an ole PC owner tired of Bill Gates power mania (we never should let operating systems be produced by software producers .... it's killed all software creativity in this country .... maybe the new joint venture internet platform
        being designed by IBM and others will bring back creativity to software!) ... if I'm a current PC owner looking to upgrade, Apple should be out there convincing me WHY I should buy an Apple rather than a Compaq or Dell or Gateway or HP with Windows 95! And right now .... they should emphasize .... MORE Power, BETTER chip, EASIER to use, BEST graphics and NO YEAR 2000 PROBLEMS! That's how you SELL computers!

        It's SALES stupid!

      • First, thank you for the kind words. I don't mind being a cheerleader for AAPL. I have been for over 10 years :)

        The AAPL discussion on the Silicon Investor web site is the best I have seen yet.
        >http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-6136

        -AAPLheads (credit to buyitnow) and naysayers alike participating in substantive conversation about AAPL. I guess a charge of $75 (it may be $125 now) keeps out some of the riff raff.

        Your participation is needed changeup! SALES and PRODUCTS! That's a good focus for us.

        GO AAPL!

        -kstar

      • First, thank you for the kind words. I don't mind being a cheerleader for AAPL. I have been for over 10 years :)

        The AAPL discussion on the Silicon Investor web site is the best I have seen yet.
        >http://www3.techstocks.com/~wsapi/investor/Subject-6136

        -AAPLheads (credit to buyitnow) and naysayers alike participating in substantive conversation about AAPL. I guess a charge of $75 (it may be $125 now) keeps out some of the riff raff.

        Your participation is needed changeup! SALES and PRODUCTS! That's a good focus for us.

        GO AAPL!

        -kstar

 
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