Yr end 2012 from IMS Midas research and Fresenius
US 436,000 on dialysis + 4% growth vs 2011
#1 Fresenius 160,000 patients (37% market share)
#2 DaVita 151,000 patients (35% market share)
2013 forecast: 453,440 patients @ + 4% organic growth.
Means Rockwell $55-$57M core sales range this year, with increased Citrapure gross margin and market share gains and at least $4 million in new cash flow from operations.
World dialysis market is growing much faster as countries like China (1.4B people) and India (1.1B) begin to offer dialysis care to their masses.
Last year, the world had 2,306,000 people on dialysis, up 7% vs 2011
If this growth rate continues by 2014 SFP's expected commercial launch, there will be 2,676,000 in the world on dialysis, and they all need iron to treat anemia.
Rockwell has the world wide rights to put iron in dialysate. In 2 1/2 months, we will know if it meets the primary effectiveness end point of a 1/2 gram drop in hemaglobin or not.
If it does, come 2014 commercial launch, SFP's addressable world-wide iron market is $3.4 billion and Rockwell will need licensing partners like Baxter, Fresenius or DaVita to sell it for them.
By 2020, there will be over 3,816,000 patients in the world on dialysis and the forecast addressable iron market for SFP is $7.7 billion.
To put this potential iron market size in perspective, last year sales of ESA drugs like EPO were $5.5 billion
I'm almost done analyzing the US and world markets for Vit D to prepare for Rockwell's planned commercial launch of the only low-cost generic Calcitroil later this year.
Nice research ! Can't wait to read about Calcitroil. Thanks