I listened to the presentation and believe there is alot of potential in their pipeline, but TH302 is a compound that is at least 5 years away from the market, and this data is not new, so don't expect some kind of pop from the presentation.
I think one of the reasons THLD's pipeline gets no respect is that their compounds are worthless as single-agent treatments - look at all the graphs that show the impact on progression is less than existing first line treatments (e.g. Gemzar) alone, but in combination show dramatic effects (i.e. 1+1=3). Given the mode of action, this makes complete sense, but this makes the clinical path for these compounds more complex and time-consuming - i.e. they have to do multiple phase-I and II trials in order to generate safety/dosing data first as a stand-alone and then in combination.
The other thing holding down this stock is that most investors will review their PR history and see that Glufo failed a Phase-3 trial and see that they are still pursuing Glufo in all these indications and not understand the distinction between the trials (i.e. the P3 being a stand-alone for end-stage patients vs. the current P2, which is testing Glufo in combo with Gemzar as a first-line treatment). The frustrating thing is to hear them talk about the failure of the P3 trial being a product of how sick the patients were (very few were even given more than one cycle of Glufo) and how hard it is to show efficacy in end-stage patients. So, if you know that your compound shows better promise as a combination therapy and that it is very difficult to show efficacy in end-stage patients that have failed first-line therapy, why go through the expense to run this trial - it was destined to fail and put your stock in the dumper for an extended period - it makes no sense!? Thankfully, they have enough cash to get through some of these other trials before they may have to raise money.
I have owned the stock more than a year and have followed the history of the company closely, but I have never read anywhere or heard in any of the other webcasts (I've listened to all of them) the TH-302 results they announced today in preclinical studies. I believe this is very recent data. In fact I have never seen any hard data regarding this drug until today, only a description of how it works. Is this correct? Can anyone point out where these mice studies were discussed earlier? If not then this is major news and would expect a press release soon.
I recall the last presentation I saw, which had to be more than 6 months ago, showing the same comparison of tumor progression in mice (I remember seeing those 3 scans with the orange-glo tumors). Either way, pre-clinical animal results don't typically drive much interest - too many obstacles (safety, competing therapies, etc.) and too long of a clinical path (especially for a small cap company that will need to raise more money) for investors to get excited about.
Thanks all for the update. I'm getting crushed here at work, so I will listen to the Webcast later.
If TH302 is years away, how will THLD get financing? Perhaps if it shows enough promise, the stock will rocket and they can do a secondary.
I understand your feelings about the recently failed P3 Glufo alone. BUT, I do not understand why they don't pursue this with the FDA even though it was not stat sig. How much would the application cost? $1? $1,000,000,000? Moreover, even if we had a crystal ball that said "rejection by FDA", the stock would have shot up, and they could have done a secondary then. I see no good reason for not saying this in this first place. There, I've said my peace on this matter again.
I do believe this company has huge potential. It will be a nail biter. I am in this for the long haul.