beFochs - I am on the same side of ignorance on this one. I'm banking on the fact that there are numerous examples of approved cancer therapies for single indications that launch the company's market cap into the multi-billion dollar range (e.g. Provenge, before it collapsed had a $5B market cap for their prostate cancer vaccine, which at best provided marginal benefit). One interesting example is Ariad, which has a few different drugs in its pipeline, but has a $1.5B market cap in part due to the successful trial of Ridaforolimus, which in their Phase III sarcoma trial generated a 3.1 week (yes, week) increase in Progression Free Survival. So, the bottom line is that if TH-302 shows the PFS and OS benefits in the Phase II/III trials that have been generated in their single arm trials (over historical benchmarks), the potential upside from their current market cap of $75M is staggering, particularly because early clinical and pre-clinical results indicate that TH-302 may provide benefits in some of the largest indications -i.e. lung, prostate, breast, etc. - and there is no competition for its unique mode of action - i.e. attacking the hypoxic regions of the tumor. The current overhang on this stock, like a lot of small cap biotech's, is how they are going to finance their clinical path to the finish line for their lead indications. Unless THLD partners over the next 6 months or so, they will have to raise money through a dilutive offering, so many potential investors that may believe in the science will take a wait-and-see approach until the financing issue is resolved. Management has made representations that they will look to partner one or more indications after the Phase II pancreatic results are available - I hope that is the case, but I have been burned before by execs that say one thing and do another?
Tredleon - as one of the few posters who's opinion I respect, and I apologize for my ignorance, but do you have any examples of companies with complimentary drugs (it seems like a significant percentage of microcap biotechs are not pursuing monotherapies) that have witnessed the growth levels that we are hoping for with THLD?
Fish - I am having the same debate - do I cash out with a decent spike from good Phase II results or do I hang in for the long run? If you listen to the last investor presentation, it is clear that their plan/expectation is to get the quickest approval possible (in Sarcoma) and count on the early clinical trials in other indications to drive off-label use. If there is validity in this plan, the payoff could be a lot quicker than with many biotechs. When in doubt, take some chips off the table, but I think I will carry a big chunk into 2012/3 to see how it plays out?
"they don't have the cash necessary to get anything to the finish line"
No doubt the key point and the main reason to why this sector is so oversold. The science continues with good results in every trial, but the money fades away and fast. Time is becoming a killing factor for many respectable names in the biotechnology business and the markets overall aren´t helping enouph. You need to be really lucky to make money investing here. On the other hand, opportunities for buyouts makes some of this companies a good target. I was very lucky to have some ANDS shares and stay alive. Maybe I´ll sell what´s left of THLD after the spike following phase 2 results and wait. Chears tredleon!