I bought my first ACAS in the middle of July of 2002. If you look at historical prices, the price was favorable but not stellar. I bought most of my stake in the last weeks of September of that year, but I've always kept a special spreadsheet to track the yield of that initial july purchase.
As I check it today, that purchase has an annualized return of a little more than 20%. In that same time frame, the S&P500 returned about 8.5% annualized. So even a poorly timed purchase of ACAS beat the S&P500 by a little less than 12%.
This stock can be extremely forgiving to an untimely long.
But the real point is, pretty much 100% of the time I've owned this company, there has been one or several idiot longs popping off about how it was such a great short. Every single one of them doesn't know their posterior from a hole in the ground, folks. Because just as this company is extremely forgiving of an untimely long, it will punish a short at any time...and it will absolutely destroy an untimely short.
Recent shorts fall into the latter category.
I can't bear to watch the slaughter.
No, you were right initially. There are several idiot longs.
I'm one of them, considering how many more shares I should have than I currently have....I was too slow in buying more recently when it was in the 20's, thinking that it was going to get to $25 and it never did.
Shorts rarely make much money in the long run unless they are full time and way smarter than the average. This is still a buy for me (down from strong buy), but I wish I had bought a lot more when I did at $27. In the past, whenever ACAS invests it ends up with good returns--smart people are makng the decisions there. Insider buyng is a good sign virtually always
When the amateurs starting shorting any stock or the market, that is usually the time to buy.
Depending on your tax situation (long term - short term gains) I would reduce both to 25%. Then I would add to your positions in TMA, IMH, ALD, and MCGC (or start positions) to about 5-7% each; and/or buy some tax-free muni bond closed-end funds that are trading at discount to NAV.
No, I've never run a simulation, I don't feel I need to. As I said, I "DCA" as it is. When we're moving lower, I weight my buys a bit more (the initial mistake I referred to was not doing so even more during the recent visit to the mid-20's). During recent moves up like this one (and the last one pushing 35, when I started buying less), I weight my buys a bit less until I'm sure the move is confirmed.