In regards to the drop in NAV specific to the ACAM subsidiaries, Gary Kain indicated in ANGC's CC that it's NAV had recovered to Sep 30 levels in the current qtr with more positive results in spreads. So if that trend holds up it for the current quarter then it should go a long way to reversing the unrealized depreciation taken this past quarter.
Which means continued buybacks. Just take a look at the 5 year chart. Since its low at .59 in 2009 it has been a steady uphill grind. I am not a fan of AGNC buybacks but I am a fan of it here. If you want to generate additional income off this stock, simply sell far dated near money puts. That is what I have been doing and have been closing them out near zero by expiration. This is a perfect stock for that strategy.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
The only reason it has had this "steady uphill grind" is due to the shareholder destruction and near death experience in 2009. When super easy credit tightened last time the stock collapsed 95%...what happens this time around? Share buybacks can not save these business models that are completely dependent on super cheap credit.
Fall in NAV in Q4 largely the result of the struggles of American Capital Asset Management (AGNC and MTGE) - $185M charge for unrealized depreciation due to reduction in projected management fees. There's also a $152M depreciation charge in American Capital's private finance portfolio driven by declining specific company performance, offset by $115M in unrealized appreciation in European Capital investment
buy on weakness in the next few days. agnc & mtge results for acas will stabilize once taper & rate increase are resolved. private finance portfolio decline nearly offset by surprise ecas appreciation and dividend. watch and buy on weakness. economies in us & worldwide on the uptick. divy in 2015? ajimho sandy