Where you at Dog? Us humble investors need your
insight and need you to tell us what to do
Of course now would be a good time to short because
this thing is going to 5
PS Seems odd he hasn't posted in over 90
knew they were toast. knew their management team
was horrible. figured they were smart enough to sell
the company before they ran it into the ground. lost
that bet - they ran it into the ground. it's a
relevant lesson to Sapient investors....the value in these
companies is tenous....both consultants and customers can
terminate the relationship rapidly.
Let me quote you for one second:
really that I think the industry is a terrible industry
to invest in long term..."
And then I
If this is a terrible industry to invest in long
term, why did you invest in CATP and why the hell are
you still here?
Then another quote:
only reason I am concentrating on SAPE right now is
that it's the most overvalued and ripe for
"...I don't hate Sapient, but I have
seen the cycles of stupidity in this industry and it's
And I get the answer to my
question. You have a great heart and do not want other
people to follow your stupidity of investing in a really
bad company like CATP. Am I right?
problem, pal, is that there are always winners and losers,
even if the industry is a bad one. During these
difficult times I am only willing to invest in the winners,
and contrary to your bashing I believe that SAPE will
come out of this as a winner.
Based on what
happened yesterday, I would say now that Q1 does not
matter either. The stock market is a forward looking
mechanism and the street will be more interested in betting
on the future (six-to-twelve months ahead) than
paying attention to what is happening this quarter. And
a 50 basis point rate cut will help SAPE a ton. At
least that is what I believe and I do not want to risk
missing a 100% gain in one year just because I may have a
20% paper loss in one month.
If I am going to
second-guess my investment decisions, then I can never be an
investor, because unfortunately NOBODY can ever time the
stock market. Not even you with your DOGGY powers and
excessive knowledge of this industry.
I won't waste my time looking back but I know
that JBD made some arguments a while back that
acquiring consultants was the stupidest thing anyone could
do. Then acquisition was the only way SAPE would make
He can't keep track of his own
Please remind me again, if you buy a
consulting company you get what? Employees that can leave
and contracts that expire quickly. If RAZF is missing
its numbers, not only are contracts expiring quickly,
they are not able to get new work with their existing
You are right, people are never free, but you don't
have to pay 1.5 times billable rates - so 700 - 1mm
per billable consultant, to get them. Recruiting,
training and initial benefits will always be cheaper than
Tell me when getting a large number
of heads is better. If you think it is a great way
to build a company look at MRCH and IIXL. They used
that model and look where it got them.
consultants at RAZF as good as SAPE? Who knows for sure, but
I would bet that some are, some aren't. But at the
end of the day, it isn't that every single consultant
at SAPE needs to be better than the best at RAZF.
What matters is that the projects get done, the
clients like it, and the client buys more services. It is
obvious that SAPE is ahead of RAZF in that aspect. Plenty
of real data to support that.
You have lost
it. You played all of your cards and are now trying
to stay in the game with bullshit. Early on, your
discussions were supported, logical and tied to some reality.
For the last month, you have talked to hear yourself
talk and hoped to spark some response.
I am not endorsing RAZF. Somebody asked me which
I would prefer holding.
RAZF is only a buy
based on takeover potential. It's always risky to buy a
company based on the idea that they will be bought (a
lesson I learned when I bought CATP...even at the
depressed price I bought, it continued to deteriorate).
CATP is another example of a takeover
It might seem like I hate Sapient, but it's really
that I think the industry is a terrible industry to
invest in long term. The story is always the
same.....hype and excessive valuations in the good
times.....only to be met by undervaluations when the story falls
apart....still lots of downside in SAPE. The only reason I am
concentrating on SAPE right now is that it's the most
overvalued and ripe for crash. I strongly considered
shorting INFY, but it only trades ADR's here and the
longstanding valuation gap between it's ADR's and the shares
traded in India has scared me away.
don't hate Sapient, but I have seen the cycles of
stupidity in this industry and it's investors before.
Sapient is simply following the same pattern.
they warn about Q1 and 2001, perhaps you will feel
This is hilarious - now you are saying that RAZF
is as good as, and a better investment than, SAPE.
Your biased rants and unmitigated hatred towards SAPE
has always been tinged with(a bit of) logic ... your
current endorsement of RAZF is a clear sign that you have
totally lost it, and yet another example of how you say
whatever you want to say, as long as a bash against SAPE
is at the end.
Once again, I ask you to
justify your presence here, and why you spend so much
time posting on this board, if you have no position in
And then I ask you to go the hell away,
because you have zero credibility, your story is
tiresome, and your condescending tone makes me ill.
The reason someone would buy RAZF is to build a
presence in this business. Perhaps a hardware co or an
RAZF does have clients and it does have skills, but
boneheads like you that are in love with Sapient seem to
think that Sapient is great - it's
Complementary skills and expertise are the reasons given for
acquisitions when you are paying too much. It makes the
shareholders think there was good reason to overpay.
today's environment, for companies like RAZF that are
cheap, you can make an argument for buying simply on a
financial basis...looking at ROI.
reason, not included in your limited list of reasons for
Acquisition is to expand geographic presence. Sapient already
has offices in RAZF locations, so it is an unlikely
suitor....but perhaps a European player might be
Anyway, your idea that you can get people for free is
misguided. There are always costs to an organization to get
people, and the fact is that to get the best you have to
work hard......sometimes an acquisition of a large
number of heads can be cheaper and smarter than onesy
Believe it or not, the
consultants at Razorfish are just as good as the ones at
Sapient, perhaps better. There is little long term loyalty
in this business, and most of higher profile
companies are competing for and trading the same
this is the funniest so far - bet on the prey not
Picture this with me - JBD and
one of his buddies are watching Marlin Perkins on
Mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom. The lion is laying in
the grass and a limping antelope trots by.
JBD turns to his buddy and says - $50 says the
wounded antelope comes out of this better than the lion.
What a joke.
Let me guess, you'd rather own a
Yugo than a Ford, a betamax than a VCR. All the bad
news is already out about the Yugo and the betamax.
They have nowhere to go but up.
So you like
RAZF better than SAPE? Until you can start making some
logical sense, please go bother them.