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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • sjq527 sjq527 Nov 6, 2007 10:41 AM Flag

    Disturbing Performance over the last year

    One year ago today, PWE closed at 31.60. Thus, with a 20% decline in the dollar, and Oil prices skyrocketing since then, there have been NO unit price gains in 1 Year.

    This is absolutely HORRIBLE performance. Imagine where we would be without the currency move and oil was in the 60's or 70's instead of the 90's.

    This absolute refusal of this stock to show any appreciation in the face of all that has me worried.

    I'm not sure I wan't my CNE converted into PWE. I own both, but PWE has been a dead weight for the last year.

    Tell me, what is going to change that? I know there are issues with taxes and royalties, but to see NO movement at all over the year seems to me a very bad sign.

    God, what if the dollar starts appreciating and oil falls? PWE could make new lows.

    Does anybody want to convince me I'm wrong to be this worried?

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    • The best thing that could happen is for the US dollar to increase, PWE is taking a hit of about 35% per barrel due to the devalued US dollar. Canadian Energy Companies are paid in US dollars, when your dollar was worth $1.25 Canadian PWE was getting a large premium in the exchange rate.

      Look at the difference in the lower price of the stock in Canada, it was always the other way around. best thing for all concerned if for the US financial institutions to clean house of all their sub-prime blime..

    • INCREASING THE dividend with higher energy prices would

    • Actually, you might consider this performance prudent and wise. You and I might have wanted a quick profit. Perhaps it is better to grow the company and to cash in later. Those who are gathering these shares will be pleased to obtain your shares and mine. I suppose that management could have been more aggressive about pumping out the good news. But, big jumps in prices would have given Flaherty and the Halloween vampires a bigger appetite. If we are about building wealth and PWE is really building itself into a major collection of energy assets, I need to remain patient and calm as well.

      • 1 Reply to mrmenorah
      • True enough. But the frustrating thing is I got into this stock by owning Petrofund (PTF) shares. Since the merger, PWE has not even come close to performing at the same level that PTF did. It just seems like once PTF was bought the market took an instant dislike to PWE, no matter how high its dividend yield. Those are just the facts. It has underperformed PTF for whatever reason.

    • This has nothing to do with PWE, CNE, HTE or anything else except the confidence in the Canadian gov't and what they might pull next. Until that black cloud is removed from these Canroys, they will not respond as we would all like. I plan to bail out of all of mine PDQ because I have just about had it with these Canucks and will come back when they come back to their senses!!!!

    • Agreed

    • It should be apparent that there a number of speculators/traders that jump the stock at the first wiff of any negative news on the page. It seems to hold within a trading range, and you can add positions cherry picking in the 28.50's - 30's as I did for myself and my Dad's accounts when the sellers have made a dime. Eventually this will be a gem and spank some shorts, who normally bring it down on their 1-200 orders. There a a number of smart money people in this for the long term, while getting the 13% gravy along the way.

    • The best analyst on the Industry Roger Conrad says that PWE, ARC and Enerplus will do well in short and long term future. He recomends a buy on PWE up to $38.00 a share.
      Alternative fuel is a long way off and will be more expensive than originally thought.
      Patience is a virtue. In the meantime you are receiving a great dividend. PWE is well positioned even if it has to revert to a corporate structure post 2011. I hope I have alleviated your pessimism.

1.62+0.01(+0.62%)Aug 25 4:02 PMEDT