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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • buundawg buundawg Mar 27, 2009 2:16 PM Flag

    Today's PWE chart looks VERY BAD for longs

    If you watch for these things, you'll notice that anytime a chart stays flat all day, especially on a big volume day, soon after the stock craters a good amount. Volume in PWE is high today and the chart is flat. Also, market is gearing up for a pullback and oil's recent run is getting toppy - these things point to PWE tanking next week.

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    • Nice call Phoenix!

    • cutting div, diving oil prices and a train wreck GM and general economy....I am out.

      may get back in in the 7's

    • candoelect Mar 27, 2009 10:02 PM Flag

      The fact that it was flat could work both ways. Yes it dropped, but I expected a lot bigger drop. The fact that it held at -$1 on high volume to me doesn't necessarily indicate negative sentiment, especially with the slight sip in crude. I suspect it will drop a bit more then trend up as oil gets closer to $70 this summer. Once we get oil above $60, AND once the credit market thaws, this thing will jump big time, but not until those two things coincide. And those things won't happen until Obama and congress give up the cameras and microphones for a while.

      • 2 Replies to candoelect
      • When have you seen Obama give up the camera/microphone? Dream on.

      • I've seen what happens too often with that kind of flat chart. It's market makers feeding in only the right amount of sells to keep the price steady throughout the day. Many more times than not, a sell-off follows. I have no proof which can explain this, other than I've seen it many times over the last year. The money flow was outward from PWE all day. Once enough shares have been bled off slowly, a quick drop follows. MM's 1st reduce their long position, then they short. They don't short too soon or else they make themselves into bagholders. The slow bleed is each bid being met with an ask, so much so that the price can't rise. But it doesn't drop either, because the black-box traders avoid flooding in too many shares. Once the pros have reduced their long exposure here, they'll short agressively. PWE was just recently below $7 *BEFORE* this most recent divy cut. It won't take much strong-arming to drive it below $8 again and sooner than you think. This recent run up for PWE is going to lose steam very badly if there's a general market sell-off, which I am very sure there will be soon. Even if the market gives back 1/2 of the recent surge, that will carry PWE down too and take $1-2 a share off PWE for sure.

    • I agree. I exited my 1,500 shares today and am looking for $8 or close to it before I re-enter.

    • Tanking next week>>>>>??? what the heck do you think it was doing going from 35 dollars to 10 dollars during the last 12 months

    • excellent observation bungwad

      • 2 Replies to trycure2
      • If you bothered to do anything research or thinking for yourself, you'd already know that for mid-cap firms like PWE, the activity on the Yahoo! message boards is a very accurate indicator of the real value of the stock. For mid-caps, the busier the board and the more justifications that "everyrhing is fine" the worse the stock does. This is especially true for any stock yielding in the mid-teens and above.

        My view is that unless oil rises strongly over the summer, PWE is going to under perform for several months.

        The dead weight of the low price of natgas, along with the lesser net yield due to divy cut will rain on PWE's parade.

        PWE's price/value merit took a big hit with this divy cut and there's many other more viable places to trade right now.

        Instead, for a plain 'ole "buy & hold" in enegry right now KYE has a much better risk/reward ratio.

        PWE's "hold" merits are hurt by this cut, but PWE's "trade" merits are still very good. That's why I bailed pre-market today.

        I'll likely re-enter at a lower level for 1,000 shares to trade, but my 1,500 longs were sold today.

        Suffice it to say, those who mock are missing the boat. Rather than mock, learn what you can from others.

        PS: I bought ONAV at 3.50, 3 days ago and it closed at 4.10 today.
        The point is if you look around, there's always good trading chances out there, so don't confuse holding with trading.

      • BUT, you need to factor in how much of today' volume is panic selling and daytraders taking advantage of it.
        Calmer heads will prevail and by next Friday we will be back to where we were yesterday.

    • quit day trading and get a real job

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