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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • tlounsb2000 tlounsb2000 Oct 28, 2009 12:56 PM Flag

    this is ridiculous

    seems like last fall all over again, what the H?

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    • and what happens in the fall EVERY year? The leaves fall from the money trees ... yet many investors never get that.

      • 1 Reply to alw59saw
      • alw59saw
        I believe the term used was "shoulder season". I guess there isn't many of the old timers left on this message board expect Bernstein, CPgone, lsu and a couple others. The rest moved on to other pastures after the Canadian Gov't screwed the Trust holders in that Halloween massacre.

        I have one trust left and that will be sold by mid January as that trust declares a huge year end distribution in addition to its regular distro. And I own a boatload of that trust so I may pick up another 5k or so on the year end payout.

    • I'm one of the idiots who has stuck with the firm for the last couple of yrs.

      I almost perfectly timed buying at the HIGH. I've got a cost basis around $29. Will we see that share price in the next couple of years? Let me know what you think.

      • 2 Replies to laxmidi94
      • There is a point at which owning oil producers is one of the best protections a person can have.... when inflation sets in. We aren't there yet, and it might be a while.

        I'm thinking there'll be an opportunity to buy much lower than we are now.... I got in on a bundle below 10 and sold it all from 14-16+..... and collected the divs in the interim, of course.

        The big question in my mind as it relates to PWE is whether they can weather the next phase of the credit crisis. Debt is more than 6 times free cash flows, and I'm not familiar with the nature of that debt. I won't be putting any money at all to work in canroys until we've taken at least a 40% haircut from current valuations, and then I'll be spreading it around and scaling in slowly. I suspect that some won't survive a protracted credit dislocation, and that is precisely what I'm expecting. I think the end of the trust status is still an unknown as far as future valuation goes, and other than simply playing a bounce if we do another swan dive, I'll probably just avoid them myself.....

        I almost shorted into the big HTE-driven spike last week, but I set my entry target a little too high and missed out....

        But 10 years out, any company that survives the storm ahead that is in the oil business will be a lot higher in at least nominal terms.... the dollar's days are numbered. If I had to buy SOMETHING and hold it for ten years or sit in cash..... it's a no-brainer. But since I can jump in and out, I'm on the short side for now..... but there is a point where I will be willing to hold anything but cash. I suspect that's at least a year out.... If I had to pick a time to see $29 again, I'd target 2013-2014. But I think we see $9 long before that.... FWIW

      • I'm an idiot too. I bought twice when it was high but I also bought a small block at its low. I'm staying in because I believe that the "after trust" company's share price will take off while I'm still getting a good dividend until then. Only time will tell.

    • MY thinking is that the big guys who must make a living off of stock investments have to drive stocks up and down. They cant make it off the poor dividends. If we dont sell low they cant take our money.

    • wash, rinse and repeat. And with divvy under 10% now, I dont think anyone is getting overly excited. These canroys are always a screaming buy when they pay over 13% and a screaming sell when they go under double digits in divvy payout for new investors. Anyone notice that?

      Are there any canroys or energy co's paying 12% or better right now?

    • I totally agree. It's down too much, too fast'

1.77-0.01(-0.56%)Oct 21 4:02 PMEDT