I shorted just shy of 12, this management team is super useless . CNQ , TLM, and CPG are surging, this pos is tanking because no matter what the assets are it has retarded management. Once downgrades start next week, this will lose 1 dollar a day.
Although you would probably call me one of the cheerleaders, I would agree with most of your criticisms about the company's management, cash flow, etc. However, if you shorted "just shy of 12", I would cover and enjoy my profits. Here are your challenges: first, almost all of the important brokerages already have a sell on the stock. It is difficult to get much more bad news that is not already reflected in the stock price. Also, in spite of some high volume days, the stock is not collapsing below is yearly low (just north of 10). Second, the assets are indeed worth something, and sooner or later, they will figure how to get the oil/LNG out of Canada to Asian customers. If you follow any of the Canadian press, transportation projects are proceeding all over western Canada for the purpose of selling energy. Also, "management" was able to sell about 8% of the assets for $1.3 billion, which suggests that the overall portfolio is worth more than the current Enterprise Value, which provides a floor for the stock. Finally, although management is terrible, the Board has figured that out, and has begun to make changes. As noted in the conference call, employment levels are being evaluated. Also, there is little doubt that Mr. Nunns is on a very short rope (and should be fired).
Can the stock go lower, it sure can. However, if you are betting it is going down another 20%, you have bigger balls than I do.
The real issue here is the size of the discount to WTI PWE continues to face.
Take a look at the Reuters article "BAY STREET-Full pipelines to cut into oil producers' profits" that just released. Here's an excerpt:
"While North American benchmark oil prices remain relatively robust near $95 per barrel, Canadian prices have tanked, with the Western Canada Select heavy crude trading at more than $41 per barrel below the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) standard on Friday."
Trite but it may get worse before it gets better. (Sucks for me as well as my cost basis is ~ $14.5).