Short term (1 to 2 years), there is really no differentiation between Penn West and any other company in the Canadian Oil and Gas industry. Longer term, when easy oil disappears and companies start to look farther and farther away from their shores to find scarce shallow areas to explore and extract oil from, when shipping oil becomes more expensive than the cargo and when oil pipelines between Canada and the US become ready, ONLY then that big corporation would start looking at the Penn West with their great and expansive light oil assets. Only then will PWE outperforms every Canadian and US oil company. Nothing PWE can do today to change the way the stock is behaving. Only long term patience will be rewarded with this company.
I am long PWE, but I can't figure out why you think easy oil will disappear in 1 to 2 years. North America is expected to be totally self sufficient in oil and natural gas during that time period. There's so much oil and natural gas in the northern US and Canada that transportation is a problem and the stuff is discounted dramatically.
All I am saying is that short term stock behavior will follow no rule or any common sense. The intake number reports and the positioning of PWE among its peers is just a smoke screen to distract people from focusing on the quality of the company Penn West is. The real question that should be on everyone's mind is: when oil resources and supply start to be scarce (1-2 years) in terms of light, easy to extract oil, which company will have enough quality assets to be in the forefront in terms of potential capacity and profits prospect? I can think of only a handful of companies and Penn West is definitely one of them.
No one can really answer this question at this time because the stock market is definitely inflated. I do not expect PWE to go down proportionally as the market corrects. I would say for every 5% drop in Dow Jones, there is a 3% corresponding drop in PWE. Most of the drop will be due to panic & short selling. If the market corrects by 20%, PWE will probably be around $9.5, +/- 5%.