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Penn West Petroleum Ltd. Message Board

  • capt_pilot_2000 capt_pilot_2000 May 15, 2013 4:08 PM Flag

    Dividend cut????????????

    I think at the current prices this stock has already discounted the dividend cut. Any comments or observations?

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    • I believe the cut is already priced in but I may be wrong. If you take a look at ERF, you'll notice that the price stayed between 11 and 14ish after the announced cut. However, the trend is your friend as PWE's drop from 13ish to the 8-9 clearly demonstrated the lack of confidence in sustaining the current div.

      If a cut in div is announced this year, I doubt it'll move the price as much as whether they can sustain the guidance given earlier this year through the rest of 2013. Sustaining the guidance and you'll see the price flatlining but beating it will surely move the price up to the teens (as demonstrated by ERF these past few days).

      For now though, I don't expect PWE to hit and stay in the teens and I don't expect it to hit below 7s either.

      Disclosure: I do own shares of ERF as well as PWE.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Historically that would be a mistaken belief. If you research the past dividend cuts (not only PWE but all the Canroys) and the resulting share price action, you will see a clear pattern of further decreases after the announcement. Only one time has this trend been reversed, and it had nothing to do with the div cut, it had to do with the shale boom, when everyone thought it was cheap energy in a high oil price world, and the price ran upwards for a time. As with all manipulations, it quickly wore itself out after the big boys managed to sell their swill to the masses. Ask anyone who was unfortunate enough to buy at $25 and sell at $13. Or worse, still holding.

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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