building short positions. However, hedge funds are already selling mining equities hard.
With Earnings only 2 weeks away, this is going to be extremly volatile. What do you guys' opinion?
PMs have been declining, ostensibly because of the possibility of a cease fire in the Middle East conflict. But it is becoming apparent from the actions of King George and Condi that any solution to the problem originating from US diplomacy would involve Hezbollah being eliminated from southern Lebanon. How likely is it that they are going to just capitulate and walk out after ~1,000 years of fanaticism inspired fighting?
in other words, the inherent clash between the Bush doctrine and radical Islam dictates that this conflict is far from over and has very little if any chance of being resolved by Condi Rice requesting the eradication of Hezbollah.
Indexes had a big rally that's why the PM stocks moved up nicely. IMO PM will hit lows in next couple weeks before moving higher. If the markets weren't in a rally mode today PM would have been down and that's why we ended in green today. I don't expect 1000 POG be years end but above 700 maybe even mid 700s.
This correction isn't over by any means yet, gold had a great run on Middle East and now it crashed back to low 600s and if there is any news on ceasefire POG might see 580s, I wish POG would drop little bit more today so I could have bought bullion but I guess I will have to wait for another day.
Trade paper and accumulate physical!
Today's rally was somewhat bullish given that price of gold was weak. However I'm afraid this rally may fall apart just like last Wed's rally. Rising interest rates around the globe is not good for the stock market or precious metals. The USD continues to ramp higher and refuses to break down and that's a bearish sign for gold. This USD rally may the real deal. Hell I didn't think the stock market was going to rally for this long (3 years???). Maybe the USD will do the same thing? Time will tell. Too many USD bears out there. And too many gold bulls yelling $1000 gold by end of the year.
I am also sick of this yoyoing up and down on every suicide bomber and hand grenade report. The facts behind the PM market still apply as I see it. The dollar is worthless, price of crude is still rocking, and the American consumuer is up to their eyeballs in debt. Sooner or later PMs are going to be about the only safe place to be. Don't we have earnings coming in early August? I heard the EPS was revised upward from $.08 to $.12. P.S. I am very happy to see the old Yahoo BB reappear. The new one really sucks.
Anyones guess earnings should be better than expected remember wwe had 15 dollar silver . lower guidance next quarter based on 11 silver.
Jump up after earnings then drop look at options really overweighted up then back down Sept-December if that tells anything.
options point to 10 and moving average says 8.50 bottom. IMHO
(1) I'm sick and tired of hearing all this geopolitical crap and it's not a reason to invest in gold or even to hope for a "get rich quick" pump. All geopolitical premiums are factored in.
(2) Heard of "sell on the news"? Earnings are a lagging indicator. Price of gold and silver have gone way down since end of 2nd quarter and that would mean lower earnings for next quarter?
(3) We've already gotten hints of a pause in rate hike twice. There were two hints: one was back in last Fed meeting in late June and the other one was last Wednesday. We rallied huge both times and we gave back those rallies the following days.
I think this correction and market weakness will last until Jan 2007 and that would be the best time to get into PM stocks again when the Fed begins to reverse the rate hikes to reinflate the economy. But who knows how low the market will be by then. Your choice. Good luck to you.
Technicaly we have some support in the low $8
range, More at 7.50. But i think we retest the
recent lows of around $7.
I'm getting bored waiting for a buy signal, and with no obvious good reasons for long term investments in stocks right now, I'm hoping the indices don't drop the tanks soon.
As it is I'm reluctant to even hold a long position over the weekend, unless SLW can show some strength heading into the close today.
Bottom happends couple weeks after Q2 numbers. Stock will be discounted maybe some more before earnings and then a run up and they will start dumping after earnings. JMO
Today seems like good buying op but only if markets start to reverse, otherwise no point of throwing money in the wind.
HUI is still underperforming price of gold. This was happening even when gold was trading at 670 due to middle east tensions and like I said gold will catch up with HUI. Looks like it's doing exactly that. I think HUI 250 is a very likely scenario. Central banks all over the world are raising rates and that will put a lid on liquidity.