I agree with most of what you've said. SLW is NOT going to get silver from the NewGG for the $3.90 that they have in prior deals...and what most people forget is that,yes, they are paying $3.90 per ounce, but the also coughed up a sizable chunk of money upfront..a total that makes their purchase price per ounce approximately $7.50 per ounce (I could be a little off in the actual price per ounce). And that's similar to what they are going to have to do again, to get a sizable (300 million ounces over say 15 years)chunk of the silver from the Penasquito project.
I'm thinking they are going to have to sell 100million shares of SLW (if this is even possible), a dilution of nearly 50%..and this would raise about $1billion...this would go a long ways towards the construction costs the NewGG will incur. This equals out to about $3.33 per ounce up front...then would then have to pay (for the sake of simplifying the math) about $5.67 per ounce upon delivery of the silver at a rate of 20 million ounces over the life of a 15 year contract. And if silver is at a price of $12 per ounce, I think earnings would roughly be $.55 per share. I don't know if they can swing something like this on this scale because of all the variables...but if they could....WOW. We'd be looking at a $25 stock, minimum...and if silver takes off to $20, $30, $40 per ounce....look out.
Is this along the lines of what you were thinking?