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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Jan 30, 2008 3:28 PM Flag

    Speculation should focus on Macquarie

    For those who are interested, Macquarie COVERED 250,000 shares yesterday and sold ZERO.

    I imagined, like many here, that with Ian Telfer the chairman at GG knowing what silver will do, that GG wouldn't let go of these shares anytime soon. Well, now it has become apparent they need money. Maybe this shouldn't be surprising. look at what happened with NovaGold and its estimates to start up their mine... Novagold said it had to cancel the project because costs increased something like 70% from their original estimate. Well GG needs the money, we can't do anything about that.

    Mr Telfer still holds his 4,500,000 shares in SLW and I do track this regularly, he hasn't sold since he released 500,000 shares a year or two ago.

    I was interested in why SLW picked what seemed like an obscure bank like Macquarie to lead this. Why not just go to a bank in North America??

    When I typed in Macquarie and China in Google, I wasn't surprised to see they have MEGA contacts in the ASIA PAC region and that they are involved in the RIO --BHP deal. One quote indicated:

    "It is believed Macquarie Group's investment banking division introduced Antam and Zhongjin and had a team of bankers in Hong Kong, Beijing, Jakarta and Perth working on the deal"

    If I speculate, where would $1.8 Billion come from? Well, the answer seems to be China, they are buying up everything. And, with China changing their import restriction laws in November because they want to let more silver in, even if in lesser quality, it seems they might be a good candidate.

    Is it a bad thing if China buys?? I don't think so, sounds like a good thing. If not china, there are other asian pacific countries and Indonisian sovereign funds that have large amounts of cash.

    As silver goes up, SLW will go up. I'm still looking at $24-$28 dollar silver in the near term

    Good trading

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    • Thanks for the excellent post. It is nice having such a knowledgeable investor on this board.

      I am beginning to understand why people track the information you do. I believe it is level 2 access that I often see mentioned where you follow who is buying and selling. Then with some more research and a little deductive reasoning you can figure out what is happening to the stock in cases like this. I appreciate the education. Please keep up the great posts.

      • 1 Reply to ballhead59
      • Thank you Ballhead, Mr G..S, All4real for your kind words.

        Although I may not post frequently, I do read posts here often and I also value yours and many others on the board for your insight. I may rant on occasion so forgive me, it usually happens when there is a full

        I'm an engineer, so anal by keep a lot of data rather than pay all these sites for the assortment of information they offer. I do keep track of buys and sells (in canada called Depth instead of LII) to try and interpret what money is doing rather than relying on money flow indicators etc.

        To keep track of insider trading allows you to type in canadian companies and see what the insiders have sold or bought. Knowing that Telfer has 4.5 million shares is a function of keeping track of his shares since SLW's first yearof trading through insider. He was initially granted 5 million and caused a stir when he sold half a million a year or two ago.

        Macquarie looks to have shorted 200,000 shares again yesterday but RBC looks to have been buying up large amounts 500,000-800,000 plus. Was RBC covering or creating a new long, I'm not sure. They have been very active lately so its hard to interpret.

        GATA's Ad comes out in the WSJ today and silver looks primed for an explosion. Someone here said its not sound reasoning to hinge our thoughts on where SLW will go based on the silver price, I respectfully disagree. It's consolidated for almost 2 years and just broken out of its consolidation. That indicates over 67% chance of much higher prices.

        Good trading

    • GG should find a buyer at these prices, a very expensive leak for them, 10% and more since the story came to light,
      6% just today! It seems that a few blocks here and there would have net them a better rate than chassing investors!

    • good info. Thanking you for posting. Interesting to say the least!

    • Can you tell me how you track Mr Telfer's holdings of SLW? I could feel a lot better holding my shares knowing he is keeping his. Thanks

    • China buying would be a good thing. China thinks long term and we would never see those shares again until the company is acquired. China also tends to pay hefty premiums, though I would rather see SLW remain indie for four more years.
      Regulators might oppose SWF buying the whole block, but you could see it broken up into three or four pieces, spread around to other long term investors in Asia or PetroD.

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