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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • chemaes44 chemaes44 Jul 10, 2009 10:44 AM Flag

    2-4 weeks

    I haven't posted any analysis on gold/silver/USD in a long time, simply because I haven't seen anything that gave me any confidence.

    I have been watching for the last two weeks something emerging that I believe is fairly strong. I'm using 2 years for my analysis.

    In looking at a long term chart of the $USD index, it seems clear to me that we can expect a major reaction of the $USD index either up or down in the next 2 to 4 weeks. My thesis is based on something simple, "keep it simple stupid", a trend line created with the on the RSI starting Sept 15th, or there abouts, and which the USD index has steadfastly remained under for almost 10 months. Through extrapolation it is clear to me that the $USD index has to break one way or the other within the next 2-4 weeks. So, which way?

    Before turning to the Euro Index chart, it is clear the dollar chart reveals a most probable continuation pattern down. It fell hard from April to June, deadcat bounced, and has tracked sideways. In most text books this is a continuation down, but taken with the fact it is just held under its 50 day moving average, it makes it highly probable the reaction of the Dollar index will be down and strong in the next 2 to 4 weeks.

    Looking at the Euro Index, the chart clearly reveals a double test of bottoms in the last qtr of 2008 and first qtr of 2009. Looking through the minuitia, one could state it tested this bottom 5 times during this period. It then made a higher, high off this bottom. Finally, it bounced off its 50 day and powered thorugh its 200 day, to seemingly pause in pennant formation waiting for the 50 day to catch up. Add this to what you see in the USD index and the probability goes up significantly that the dollar's direction is down. Interestingly, the euro index is meeting the 50 day average right now but its trend suggests a reaction in 2 to 4 weeks.

    My canadian dollar supports my theory slightly, but not greatly.

    I believe the Yen supports my theory because it just broke out two weeks ago.

    In the swiss franc, i don't see anything with timing but it supports the euro index in that the franc looks like it is consolidating for a move upward.

    Although not part of the index, the Renminbi (Yuan) broke into a new range in Feb to mar of this year. The Yuan suggests from a timing perspective that there will be a break in 2-4 weeks.

    In oil, I see no signals from its chart on timing.

    So, enjoy your summer, there won't be much action it seems.


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    • So good to hear you are doing well News. I bought more AGEN today since they have more revenues than DNDN or so they said. You know me, I'm too lazy to do any research but I invested a whole month learning the charts and technicals instead of moping around waiting for prices to go up. And I relied on my gut instinct to sell today when I saw the price drop for SLW and those lessons did help lots.

      It might be pullback for a bit until next week or so. I know it's bullish still. I won't stay in AGEN for too long. I might get out before next Thursday until Q2 is announced. I don't like trading on Fridays. I have bad trading experiences on Fridays.

      I'm weary about drug companies too. Can't just walk around in my underwear if I lose my shirts too.

    • Rebeccaha: You are such a caring and giving person. So very smart about life. I sold today as well. Yesterday, I was going to buy Intuitive Surgical ISRG, but held back on purchasing it. It went up about 45 points. I also should have kept all my TCK. I have not been in the grove lately, not feeling well at all. I have been researching bio-tech/drugs again, my life besides PMs since the 1970's. I made some telephone calls to old friends about two low priced bio companies that I have been closely watching for a long time. I think that they may be 5 to 10 baggers like VNDA and DNDN. Then again, you can lose your shirt on bad clinical trail data. I need to be at sure as possible before mentioning them, maybe tomorrow. Stay in good health and spirit everyone, even in this world of greed and manipulation.

    • I see nothing at all saying that Gold and Silver are going to go up in the near term. Mabey if things get really bad, it might, but there are too many people including the government that are against the POG. This is an artificial market with nothing acting normal anymore. I dont even see how charts mean anything because they are all manipulated anyways. If you dont believe me, ask yourself why throughout history has this time been the exception? You print money, it decreases the dollar. A bad and unstable economy decreases the dollar. Emerging markets decrease the dollar. Threats to debunk the dollar as the reserve currency decreases the dollar???? Yes, mabey I am a complete idiot when it comes to this stuff, but at least I know history. Why dont those points that I just pointed out matter anymore?

    • yes tom. i know life is about choices and sometimes we have no choice but to make difficult choices. don't take offense to my words. i mean well even though sometimes, i don't know what i'm talking about. life is just a learning experience anyway. unfortunately i learn better after a mistake.but wisdom for me comes at a high price sometimes.

      so before the sh!t hits the fan for me more today, i sold at 9.33 before i buried myself deeper in the pithole. i am not ashamed of taking profits first and run and fight my battles later.

    • LOL... I just can't help but respond to this post. It's not crazy swimming in the most beautiful lake in Chicago. I did that for about 15 years. It's tne most beautiful thing to do in summer. Chicago has the most beautiful lake front. You aught to take a dip.

      What a coincidence that I just came back here to read due to the frustration of the price movement of AUY. And wholla you posted after a long absence. I tell you there's such a thing as fate.

      Off I go, and I follow the simplest rule: Don't sell until you make money.

    • Thanks CF,

      I agree that it is best to take the high road.
      I appreciate the advice. You & I have a lot in common given your brief bio.

    • Rebeccaha,


      -we forget "falling in love" has nothing to do with love.

      -we forget the grass is greenest where it's watered.

      -we must remember, no matter where you go - there you are.
      (In reference to your final comment) You can't escape yourself, so a personal inventory is critical throughout life if you want to stop unhealthy behavior patterns from repeating.

      -we have to realize we can only "fix" ourselves.

      -we have to draw a line in the sand & say I am no longer willing to stay in an unhealthy situation

      I realize you don't know me or my situation so I can not take any offense. I believe you meant well.
      Take care, Tom

    • tom, sometimes, we forget why we fell in love in the first place when people start taking each other for granted.

      there's a saying, you never know how good a horse is until you travel quite a distance with it. people get bored with the same animal easily if life is too mundane.

      i think it's because the affinity is over, time to buy a new clothes but you never forget the old security blanket really. just make the best out of the same situation or you'll end up with exactly the same person in your next life. that would be a nightmare.

    • Way OT:

      I don't know you, but can offer some thoughts on the subject (unsolicited, I know) -
      I split with my first wife (and college sweetheart) after 17 yrs together when I was 34 (16 yrs ago) was my decision based on growing apart more and more over a decade or so, so she hate(d)(s) me for it even knowing it was best for both of us, but I treated her well;

      gave her whatever 'stuff' she wanted, split the money fairly up front, helped her move, bought her a townhouse (taking a temp loan from a good friend of mine), and wished her the best life possible.

      I have always felt badly that it didn't work out, but never regretted my good treatment of her on the way out the door, whether she appreciated it or not, then or now.

      Good luck, it's a tough road, but it heals.

    • Thanks buddy. It's been the elephant in the room for a few years now. Trying to keep it amicable and looking forward to a fresh start. Life is too short to waste.
      Good to see a few new posters here with some good input. I'll be quietly hanging around here for awhile (still need SLW at 12.50 - 13 US$ to be able to trade again). I'll post my trades for the board to follow along and/or point & laugh.

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