"China can’t raise interest rates because of the risk of attracting inflows of cash that would fuel inflation, said Wu Xiaoling, a former deputy governor of the central bank.
“The global low interest-rate environment prevents China’s central bank from raising interest rates,” Wu said in a speech at a hedge fund conference in Shanghai today. Emerging markets face capital inflows and “excessive money supply is one of the important reasons for China’s inflation,” she added."
On the other side:
"Economists at firms including Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. and UBS AG. have, in contrast with Wu’s view, said that China is likely to raise rates this weekend. China’s central bank yesterday increased lenders’ reserve requirements for the sixth time this year as part of efforts to curb inflation that rose to a 28-month high in November."
I don't think the rate hike is as much of a sure thing as you do, nor if China does raise rates it will affect the ag market to the extent you think. In any case, we shall see.
Industrial output up over 13.3% and no rate increase yet. I'm actually thinking the market will be up big monday. The main inflation came in food costs which can be handled thru higher industrial output. I don't believe any analyst held the belief they will not raise this weekend, we will see. Good luck.
High China inflation, got to be good for precious metals. The Chinese aren't stupid, historically they don't trust paper currencies especially a currency that's controlled by the central party, not market forces. I have no facts, just my opinion.