I think the market is in for a big disappointment. Nobody is announcing dropping money from helicopters like confetti.
The rally last week in anticipation of more printed money is in for a rude shock. Folks in SLW need to take precautions in the form of covered call sales, or ZSL Monday on any silver pop IMHO.
The grasshoppers of inflation are fiddling, it's time to act like an act and work harder for the food to be stored for the draught Tuesday afternoon.
This is worse than a zombie horde on "The Walking Dead". At least the zombies have a clear purpose.
Looks like the "idiot" (me) got it right, with rollover this afternoon and profit taking.
About the only place to hide money for the drip is back in high yield, since that is "safe" for the arbitrage play those guys use, for the next three years.
On the silver and gold fronts, I look for the market to challenge the fifty percent retracement from the high to the low, at the high thirties for SLW.
Still haven't heard the other shoe drop on the next "contract" for SLW in eons.
For one thing, the 9 Feb show at the CC is going to get a boost from the recovery of silver. If we break just even with last quarter, increased volume of silver moved, and upcoming, ought to ensure a bottom in the mid thirties.
Wonder what will happen with a CME margin hike? Thats my only concern. However, I think so many people have kicked the COMEX to the curb that there are very few investors in the paper futures market anymore. We shall see;)
Though the market is off and running on that hopey changey thing, and the main thrust of the Fed to keep irates low for another 2 years announced as I predicted a while back, another prediction, no QE3 but lots of jawboning came true about a half hour ago.
Bernookie announced that QE 3 hadn't been baked in yet, was on the table, and will adopt a wait and see attitude, just as I foretold. Talk first, action maybe, and the market is buying it sort of--the pundits would call this tepid, but if you amortize today across the rest of the year, that's a doubling of the market.
That last item, amortizing pops that appear tepid to those who don't do fourth grade math very well, isn't a vote which way silver and gold will go. As I said, announcements of low irates are gold and silver friendly, how friendly and whether there is follow through the rest of the week remains to be seen. In the meantime, my hedged position seems to be making money so, I will just keep collecting.
Why doncha kill me. I bot EXEL cause that was a sure and
then on "The rally last week in anticipation of more printed money is in for a rude shock. Folks in SLW need to take precautions in the form of covered call sales, or ZSL Monday on any silver pop IMHO.' I bot ZSL on Monday morning's pop. Some of us losers should just be happy with 1% interest.
State of the Onion speech smelled like, onions. More advance notice that the interest rate horizon will be kept artificially low, in order for Amurrica to refi its hovels regardless of financial worth of the real estate, more like an attempt to put $3000 in everyone's pockets by refi ing the house.
We'll see how much choreography was co worked by the Fed to support this drivel. It might get a bunch of folks who can't make the cash flow to organize their debts better.
Then again, it might wind up in the crapper. Is the State of the Onion message putting $3000 in everyone's pockets enough to wake up the PM market?
Might get a pop. Most likely, not. We'll see just how much this limpdik QE 2.1 is worth today when Bernookie speaks.
I think we get some supportive "we'll keep irates low for the forseeable future" changes to the language. There's no way the Presidential program gets passed, put into effect, and the refi drill starts much before Fall. And the prospect of all that new money falling to the economy this XMAS a dim possibility, with most of the refi action happening in the 2013 time frame.
Methinks an announcement of 2014 to 2016 is merited.
Let the dance begin, and the choreography be judged.
Dancing with the stars.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-set-push-back-timing-062228298.html is the big announcement pre announcing, the easing of irates into the 2014/5/6 arena I foresaw couple days back.
This should put a floor under the price of precious metals. It should help silver in that it is pro industrial.
Right now, we are suffering with the post Obama nothing new blues. The degradation of your money in order to feign "growth" is the target of opportunity, brought to you by those same "great thinkers" and economic genius that brought you no doc loans.
And how's that working out for you if you bought your home after 2003?
Led by the stupid, the unwilling with their hands out, we created a Frankenstein monster out of the government. Instead of being the protector of the nation with our tax dollars going for conscript labor and an act of service, we created a printing press of Monopoly money with a bunch of soldiers of fortune instead of soldiers of country.
Int he meantime, Frankenstein ravages the countryside, killing off everything you hold in your pocket called money.
Unbelievable lunacy prevails, and even the Neurobeenies and Fabers are just silently trying to swim with these sharks, until all the crumbs and chunks of bloody meat are gone.
The markets want to send Obumer a message with a big down day. The U.S. fiat dollar is up, the stock market will be down. His speech really stunk. What a waist of time.
BTW - The U.S. fiat debt stands at INFINITY this A.M.
Its already been going on since QE2 ran out. However, I think there will be an overt global massive QE this year. This is going to be a truly amazing year. You are going to be on this ride no matter what so you might as well enjoy watching everything implode in slow motion. Just keep your pecker up and don't get caught with your fly down;)
Coh-rect. The decision is due on Wednesday, but today is the day of doubting Thomas, sometimes known as turnaround Tuesday, which kind of works no matter what the headline drivel. You can tell by the pre market that much I got right as the buzzkill ended yesterday and one Dow component in the toilet in its report today.
I hate to be a buzzkill, but the cringe before the binge, may be the cringe before the heads are cut off. I also agree that the Operation Twist announcement will be forthcoming, but it's only a "willing and able" response to higher long term rates. I do not believe, it warrants a dime being spent to make 3.3/4 % mortgages an 1/8 point cheaper.
The idea of twist is not to lower irates, but to divert folks who've invested in low yield short term stuff, to other more risky stuff, by either artificially driving up cap gain on the bond funds, or down, which will make folks consider dumping and getting into higher risk investments. That's the hidden agenda.
That's also the worst place to look for risk investors, amongst the Mom and Pop worry warts that hide like Depression babies inside those silly low yielding worthless pieces of paper.
If their near term bonds drop like flies, it is going to dry up any attempt to make them buy Ginsberg Mining Co or Amalgamated Farts Bottling Co.
Nobody in ETF or Fund land is suddenly changing their charter if X % of the fund is supposed to be in those low yield paper investments called near term bonds.
They have to finish OpTwist.Then it goes to a vote of the Federal Reserve Advisory Council, which is level above the FOMC inside the Fed. Then there is the FOMC vote, one OpTwist is done, there is at least 15 days, maybe 60 to 90 days, before any QE3 vote. There are 2 Fed levels above the FOMC, Council, Board of Directors.
Again, that is a baked in process that will be the execution of a known quantity. I believe when the American public raises its head from the bar stool, and finally goes back to the trailer to sleep it off, they want to awake to see confetti falling all around them.
This Operation Twist is a process which will be dragged out for ever. The idea is to lie in wait for the pop in overnight rates that the Fed does not control. THEN you'll see us twist again, like we did in the early sixties, with zilch results.
The anticipatory wait will meet with awchit, as this "process" is too ethereal for a public waiting for handouts as if the government is more than just the sum of its tax receipts.
and a huge sell off unless some of the separate reporting co's outdo themselves. They've certainly enough bazonga bux to make that happen, the issue is, have they.
What's going to kill the market buzz isn't the only hammer to fall on oil prices. This has been a very mild winter so far. The eastern corridor is expecting 40's-50's for the rest of this month and the next.
I wouldn't be surprised to see oil in the low eighties before the summer. Contrary to the time frame, a lot is bought in the summer months to stock up for the winter.
Next winter the ants win. The grasshopper, instead of being taken in by the ants, continues to borrow from the ant farms in the Pacific Rim and Europe, and they're broke.
Wednesday afternoon, it's win lose or draw on QE nonsense. I don't think we're going to see anything of value.
The market will do a collective awchit, and I believe anticipated by tomorrow afternoon.
They call it turnaround Tuesday for a reason.