It is weak right now, but it is trying to take shape.
Long at $27.75. If silver falls under it by even 5 cents, I sell it all.
If it get's back above 27.75 again, I buy it, and put the same 5 cent stop on it. Try twice and then stay away if stopped again.
It needs time but it looks promising.
>>Bot-Ball game relationship<<
thought that too the last several days. some type of derivative play has been set up, with the dollar, pm mining companies and pm metals.
some type of set up with maybe long miners, short metal, short dollar...because i've seen the dollar moving with silver in same direction vs inversely l and i've also seen miners moving opposite the metals.
blind luck for me today. Short on slw made money, and balanced out loss against silver contracts short stop loss of $200 per contract.
Only have my profits on long positions started june 4 closed out at $29.55.
How could i have know silver would go down while silver was going up? didn't, pure simple blind luck.
get arrogant with "perfect trade", market slaps you back.
2 for 3 today ain't bad.
closing it down today, waiting to get long again over next 15 to 36 hrs, if lucky.
silver is fast approaching that $29.43 price written about several days ago. revised number is $29.45 +10 cents. This means it has a 75% probability of topping out at between $29.45 to $29.55.
so, that means it would be a mistake to buy slw long at the open if silver is in that area. One of the primary rules in trading is never chase. Wait for it to come back to you, either later today or tomorrow, or the day after, it will come back. If anything shorting SLW at the price levels mentioned is the way to play with a very tight stop.
Oh yeah, the break out prices I wrote about days before were $28.67 and/or $28.77. If you have access to 10 min futures chart go look how close I was. Actual numbers were $28.69 and $28.77.
With that, hopefully Alfalfa is smart enough to realize his higher level math is like counting with pebbles compared to the nonlinear regression analysis modeling i do.
YOUR (you're)as good as your last call, and i think I was perfect on this one..
depeche & tom, you guys are cool with me, appreciate the kind words.
Tom buddy, great to see you back. I don't come around here at all anymore. i was absent several months. been reading and jogging. I'm here these last couple of days as a personal challenge. you know I get bored. you know getting the prices is something i can do with regularity, but nailing "the turn" from bullish to bearish, or bearish to bullish is much harder. So, I thought I'd try to call a turn publicly with pressure of ridicule as incentive to get it right. If it moves up monday, I pat myself on the back and likely disappear again. you're welcome to send me email though and we'll chat that way.
silver was perplexing in it's behavior yesterday
there are rules to trading and you follow them to the letter, planning entries, planning where to exit, how much risk to take and proofing your reasons behind each.
the trouble was, gold went up 4.24% and by extension silver should have been up anywhere from 7.63% to 12.72% because of the multiplier effect of how it has historically performed over the years. however, silver only achieved a 3.50% move up??
also, in the final post I made friday, i wrote: "... if it (silver futures)doesn't hit the price 28.77 today. This scenario would mean silver (futures) have to open sunday night at $28.67 or $28.77 and move up strongly from there..."
What happened next was very, very unusual.my price predictions are for futures contracts and these prices lead the spot price. Futures finished 5:00pm at $28.47, however, spot closing an hour later at 6:00pm closed at the prices I said it had to open at sunday night= bid at $28.68 and ask at $28.78.
So, spot hit my prices, but futures didn't. It is always reversed. Also, using the multiplier effect of what silver should have done relative to gold says, silver futures should have closed almost a buck higher at $29.43.
Lastly, the double etf in silver always outperforms SLW by 2x. They were 1:1 on Friday in performance.
what does that all mean? the ducks didn't completely align. I reduced some of my positions because I didn't understand what was going on.
So, the predictions I made for sunday night, happened friday night instead; the way it happened was reversed with spot finishing at the price instead of the futures; silver significantly underperformed gold when it shouldn't; and, the etf which usually doubles up SLW gains only matched it.
With all those things out of wack, any further predictions are pointless. I'm flying blind now but made back all my losses due to stops and then some several fold.
Yes holding well as both gold and silver higher than even the dollar as oil plunges.
Silver has not fallen anywhere near the degree as oil since the dollar broke above 80.
That is a good sign showing the monetary aspect of the specie above it's industrial usage.
We're all just waiting for the next QE infusion. I believe we're close. Will they wait for the Euro to collapse or just oil at 80 dollars? I'm hearing that it could take as much as 100 trillion to keep the system from melting down.
I'd indicated silver was trying to turn bullish from the bearish beating it had been taking.
27.75 silver with a 5 cent stop loss was indicated as the proverbial line drawn in the sand, that if it could hold the momentum for a bullish reversal would become stronger, but stronger yet if the price could achieve 28.61.
After silvers advance to 28.09, it was beaten back to....you guessed it, 27.75 to 27.70. It fought to remain above this price for nearly 200 mins - a valiant effort remaining within pennies of 27.70. Once it broke down and through it, silver fought for another 80 or so mins remaining a cent or two under 27.70.
Technically the effort to turn has failed. Bears will once again gain full control if they can push the price to an hourly close under 27.53. Haven't run the numbers for where to after that because I take it one day at a time and it's bedtime now.
Tending to believe worst case scenario has diminished because the bull's fought a decent battle today after being absent for a few months. Not only did bull's fight a decent battle today, I felt they were fighting last night and early Asian time too. Why? The models I compiled said today's low should have been hit at least 8 hours earlier. Some of you know, I rarely give time predictions but this one was in your face screaming but it never happened. Take it for what it's worth...absolutely notha.
>>Wow, another English major.<<
hey Spanky, i despised eNgLiSh. prefer math.
Quiz: What language is the only true universal language on the planet?
Answer(bare with me- requires some explanation):
Take your left hand and make a fist. Position that fist so that the knuckles are pointed skyward and you can see the back of your hand clearly. starting at your baby finger, count 3 digits moving left to right, raise that 3rd finger while keeping the other fingers clasped.
as i just signed to you, sign language speaks volumes, huh spanky?
Silver tried to run up, did well getting to 28.09, then fell back to the before mentioned 27.75 without being stopped. will see if it holds
silver is trying, huffing and a puffing climbing that hill with a 75 lb back-pack.
using Mt Everest analogy, bear death zone is $28.61. no oxygen for bears to breath at, and above said price. That price is so incredibly difficult to attain, that if reached I'd go as far as saying 99.9% bottom is in -short term (5-7 days). And, pm safe haven status would be back. suspect jobs report will play big tomorrow, maybe firming QE3, punching back greenback and giving commo's respite.
Good strategy since I think SLW should trade at a premium to the price of silver, so if you buy when it passes silver I think it'll probably continue rising as more people realize the power of their advantageous leverage: