Monday will depend on carry thru by the overseas cotillion Sunday night our time, as follow through to this miracle of 3 August, the disappearing unemployed by 165K, and the zombies emerging from their graves to pop the rate to 8.3%. I tell you what, there must be a better class of garbage out there for these folks to not only rise from the grave, but type a resume and submit it, the fools.
This week of 6-10 has nothing going on Monday, and you know what that means, unless some co blows the lid off the map 3 Aug AH, the whole thing slogs down Montag into a whimper. Turnaround Tuesday hasn't much to offer either--the big deal is continuing claims which by all that is 8.3% versus 8.2%, should be going down. Next reporting period they will go up, because of those damned zombies.
Where does silver go? Now you know why I sell covered calls-this is a flat or daytraders market, 3-5% a month is nothing to sneeze at, I know, I once owned DNDN (phoo), and sold for $10. It's now $4, I'm such a genius.
These days I am in SLV as the proxy is better for close encounters. SLW is the better investment, but is just too squirrelly to call, or put. The Pascagoula "controversy" of who owns what when, and the relationship to SLW which will probably demur from commenting on somebody else's puka, makes me nervous. But,that may be why the premium for the SLW calls is so juicy. And SLW pays a dividend. Which is all too close to the argument, that's why folks like paper money, it pays "interest". I know there's a difference, but it's not much from the headline perspective, and lately the market has been filled with head cases that only look at the headlines. You'd think with only "professional" traders, that wouldn't matter. Wrong.
Here you go, mostly gristle, not meat for silver hounds.
Aug 7 3:00 PM Consumer Credit Jun - NA NA $17.1B -
Aug 8 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 08/04 - NA NA 0.2% -
Aug 8 8:30 AM Productivity-Prel Q2 - NA NA -0.9% -
Aug 8 8:30 AM Unit Labor Costs -Prel Q2 - NA NA 1.3% -
Aug 8 10:30AM Crude Inventories 08/04 - NA NA -6.522M -
Aug 9 8:30 AM Initial Claims 08/04 - NA NA 365K -
Aug 9 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 07/28 - NA NA 3272K -
Aug 9 8:30 AM Trade Balance Jun - NA NA -$48.7B -
Aug 9 10:00AM Wholesale Inventories Jun - NA NA 0.3% -
Aug 10 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jul - NA NA -1.4% -
Aug 10 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jul - NA NA -0.3% -
Aug 10 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jul - NA NA -$129.4B -
While we're digesting whether the SLW successes of a mild beat and a divvy pop are one time blivits this year, and are sufficient to counter the price of silver as it drifts downward, (we made it up in volume) all of us know that the basic macro monetary policy, destroy the dollar to make it appear as if we're making money in the rest of the market is doing it's level best to make us all millionaires, provided we all know that a million dollars is what a cup of coffee will cost.
So it's with a great deal of pleasure to advise you, that this morning imports should cost us a hair less, and be up a smidge, while exports, the lifeblood of a nation who is using water instead of blood (some would say chicken soup)--are probably a smidge down with the "strong" dollar.
The dollar is like garlic--when strong it tastes great, but you stink thereafter. Such is the view of the world, whose success is based on our lousy dime of value left since 1971, all but disappears.
But, we're all employed, we're just not making a currency that can buy anything.
See how that works? No? Me neither, I just get a front seat ticket to the freak show.
I get some solace by being right instead of popular. But I won't rankle your nerves again by advising it might be prudent if we get an over $30 day to sell some covered calls.....
I did it again.
This is going to be interesting in a market that alleges it awards or kiboshes, forward looking guidance. The numbers last night for second quarter were surprisingly a hair better than the street--37+ cents per share, altho I looked at yahoo guestimates and got an identical number--and the top line appeared to have been managed, by juggling 1st QTR late delivery into 2nd QTR stats. Let's call it a beat by a smidge. The extra penny dividend pop was also eye candy but I can't help but think--where in the basement are we going to find extra attributable ounces now that Pascahatta is delayed by a year. SLW investors have heretofore shrugged off those pronouncements as if they had patience. Maybe that will give time to those who argue the ABX deliverables are really ABX's--there's this pesky guy who keeps saying his claim was jumped, and he has had enough traction to get a South American Supreme Court's attention.
Still if justice prevailed, would we still be stuck with the ghost of Richard Nixon who returned us to the pre Revolutionary standard of paper versus silver and gold for money? Here is is 40 years later and we're still being burglarized, the value being ripped out of our pocketbooks at the rate of 6% a year.
Fact remains I am sanguine about SLW staying above $30 but won't take candy from this baby, if shareholders vote the other way--they've done that pretty consistently--I'll let the CC do its job and the CEO explain how moving ounces from quarter one ($34) into deliverables 2nd quarter ($28 an ounce) is a repeatable circumstance third quarter when the POS has another dollar shaved off the top this time around. Maybe we saved some $28 silver for rackup in this $27 quarter.
I am reminded of the old joke, how do you make a profit when the price of the sold item is falling like a rock? VOLUME! I wonder who else might notice. Certainly not those jumping in later AH with the dividend bumb 1920 hours. I am happy to collect, I just got that Emperors new clothes feeling.
Silver itself is not cooperating, Europe is showing its ugly head and pounding both Pac Rim and itself into oblivion, maybe it will improve by morning, and silver is off 1.25%. That would shave SLW down to it's close of last night before the release of 2nd quarter.
Before you get all huffy, remember that's five bucks above the low of a few short weeks ago. If the numbers and the jive talk survive the CC, we might hang over $30 by close of business.
SLW does not act on market performance alone, silver has to flow in opposition, except for certain times like CC's.
I've said it before--get a pop this morning and don't want to sell, great, but those Sept 30's and Oct 30's and 31's bank a lot of insurance when sold.
That's my opinion and I am sticking to it.
Unemployed got lower, but last report got ratched higher, hmmmmmm, the song "how long, has this been goin' on?" runs through your head, chalk it up to about a year now.
Futures are up a smidge, silver is flat as pancake as of 6AM Pacific Coast time.
Tonight we talk about SLW's two new mine acquisitions that are instantly accretive. The cymbal crash at the end of that ba dum dumm moment, time to break even on the bet.
The other thud waiting in the wings is the Pascaguola who-owns-the-Barricks-mine-from-which-SLW-gains-cash-flow issue, which rears its head here, and has some traction because courts have ruled on who owns what, and that isn't ABX, the SLW supplier.
I wonder who might ask about that at the CC, senor?
We're all awaiting earnings, and the pre announced two acquisitions, one in tax territory, the other not (I hope they've learned how to read a map and devined who owns what), the expectations are high.
I don't read the price of silver as going up, rather, going down, and these mines need to be accretive in short order, but wait and see is the byword.
While PCLN beat guidance, they're reliant on Europe and cast gloom by deciding that Europe would continue to fail for the next forseeable quarter. They are about to take a 25% bath at the open. Efficiency at work, and salaries, showed a 1.5% pop this morning on the economic front.
SLW is countersilver trending upward, as silver was off as much as 1% this morning.
Mr Market wears many faces this morning.
WHERE'S THE "NEGOTIATOR"? PCLN got creamed tonight for blotzing about third quarter and coming in under analyst rec'd--they got killed $100 of their $680 stock price tonight, as did a lot of AH reporters.
What a BLAST to the downside, with some more to go. A lot of AH so what reports, tomorrow's up day will have to rely on being "Avenged" because Disney came out swinging with a stable of movie money makers. They'll have to carry the up day tomorrow because right now futures are as flat as pancakes.
Silver is off a smidge.
GLTA, I gotta figure where I should get into PCLN if at all on a scalping expedition.
Well the newest James Franco movie coming out this winter is about "OZ" and how he descends upon that magical land and becomes, well, the Wizard.
It's going to be boring going I am afraid, because the Fed beat them to it today, jawboning the magic of calling for "more stimulus" as the Fed buys bonds outright to keep irates low for the next five, not two years.
Another article talks about the contrarian view, that whenever growth slows in the market, it takes off like a scalded cat rewarding the few growth stocks still on a tear.
Nobody points to the fact that while goosed by a degrading currency, countertrends are all you have to keep even, especially at 6% a year.
So, when not busy five starring spam or writing political polemics, one might want to take a moment to see SLW which has not only revisited an upchannel, but the 2X rule seems to be trying to resurge.
SLV on the other hand, has stopped being proxy for silver by about 1/2 (!) as if the real market is having trouble deciphering the spot market.
It all makes for interesting trading.
Verrry nice turnaround for silver and the market as a whole.
BIG pop for SLW AGAIN! Tomorrow's lonely sentiment in the morning should set the tone, but with the bailout for Italy, longs will have their PIIGS in a blanket of don't worry be happy sauce.
This could be a monster week for longs. Deserved, maybe not, but you don't fight success, you gauge the channel, dive in and swim.
Remember 3 Aug Friday: Procter and Gamble, Berkshire Hathaway, Toyota, Royal Bank of Scotland, Beazer Homes, Viacom, Allianz, NYSE Euronext?
That's about 3/4 winners to 1/4 losers. Should really help the doldrums Monday and stabilize markets, unless the old country decides to render commentary on anything but a "next meeting".
On a weekday, might have found a a market trending upwardly mobile, but will be completely forgotten during the weekend. Some of the blather would center around the Burpsure Hasaway beat and Royal Scottish bagpipe beat--showing the old man and some of Europe's financials still make money--but those other guys, the market's house representation, remind everybody about broken market computer programs screwing everyone who has the temerity to invest using digits--which is just about everyone.
If you can't trust the croupier and the gambling is burning down, it's hard amongst the smoke and fire to ask for another card at the gambling casino.
It's like, what if you opened your ETRADE account Monday, and found instead of your money, the words GAME OVER in 72 point type?
Back to the lawn.......