No time left for compromise, no desire to do so, Congress and Oblamer rack up the last vestige of governmental responsibility and shirk it mightily this next couple weeks -- our legacy this century has been one of avoidance of responsibility--this fiscal cliff overlooks a bottomless pit of money valuation 1913/war declaration post WWII 1950/budget resolution 2008 onward that makes me embarrassed beyond discussion.
What a legacy! On top of that TWIST ended, and the Fed is buying bonds outright with printed money. Ought to really send silver and gold through the roof, no? Fiscal Cliff Notes summarize the process--when the cliff rears its head and silver plummets, buy buy buy. Home sales be damned, initial claims, which should be good because of XMAS hiring be damned, it's whether or not the self inflicted wound called sequestration is on its way. It certainly isn't on the mend as both sides of the aisle are itching to avoid responsibility as most of America figures out the wounds are self inflicted, but doesn't care. They're too busy buying Chinese knockoffs for relatives they'd never associate with except by accident of birth for the holidays.
The nutcase who killed those 27 kids and teachers last week is the tip of an iceberg 22.4% un and underemployed deep. There's no direct one to one correlation here, I am just stating, that in an environment of fiscal uncertainty where so many are affected, it throws hormones and pheromones into the air like telegraph vines tell each other of impending fires. It doesn't take a lot, and it doesn't have to compute logically, to find out unrest in general, turns the individuals most prone to being affected, into monsters. That's right, you don't know what makes people snap like twigs, but uncertainty and irresponsibility by leaders just doesn't help make for social stability.
I used to say it this way. 6% of the population can't get up in the morning without chemical stimulation of some kind, and one percent of that six percent shouldn't associate with people at all. And the more pressure on that crowd of malcontents, the more prone they are to act out.
See how that works? I know it's hard to see, if your eyes are as filled with tears as mine are. Those tears could easily turn to anger, but I dare not go there without becoming one of the six percent I warn about, let alone one of the one percent of the six percent. Now THAT wouldn't work at all.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Dec 17 8:30 AM Empire Manufacturing Dec - 2.0 2.0 -5.2 -
Dec 17 9:00 AM Net Long-Term TIC Flows Oct - NA NA $3.3B -
Dec 18 8:30 AM Current Account Balance Q3 - -$103.0B -$103.6B -$117.4B -
Dec 18 10:00 AM NAHB Housing Market Index Dec - 47 47 46 -
Dec 19 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/15 - NA NA 6.2% -
Dec 19 8:30 AM Housing Starts Nov - 850K 873K 894K -
Dec 19 8:30 AM Building Permits Nov - 870K 876K 866K -
Dec 19 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/15 - NA NA 0.843M -
Dec 20 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/15 - 365K 345K 343K -
Dec 20 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 12/08 - 3200K 3192K 3198K -
Dec 20 8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate Q3 - 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% -
Dec 20 8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate Q3 - 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% -
Dec 20 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Nov - 4.90M 4.90M 4.79M -
Dec 20 10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed Dec - 2.0 1.0 -10.7 -
Dec 20 10:00 AM Leading Indicators Nov - -0.3% -0.2% 0.2% -
Dec 20 10:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Oct - NA NA 0.2% -
Dec 20 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/15 - NA NA 2 -
Dec 21 8:30 AM Personal Income Nov - 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% -
Dec 21 8:30 AM Personal Spending Nov - 0.4% 0.3% -0.2% -
Dec 21 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Dec 21 8:30 AM Durable Orders Nov - -0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Dec 21 8:30 AM Durable Orders -ex Transportation Nov - -0.5% -0.4% 1.8% 1.5%
Dec 21 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Dec - 72.0 74.0 74.5 -
It's tough being right. Spendable bread came in a plus, and durable goods too, but didn't make a dent, so far in the Boehner Boehner pulled testing the waters this side of the deadline.
The malignant Republicans, and the decaying Democrats, all have one agenda. I don't know what that is, but it isn't ours.
Looks like the Mayan prophesy of end of the world has nothing on the death of a thousand cuts that will transpire 1 January. 60% still believe that the process isn't broken.
It may have to be broke before it's deemed broken, but the triple digit selloff is telling the tale of the tape. Silver is only off 1/2%.
The biggest elephant in the room the fiscal cliff got headlines yesterday when Repukelicans published their own Plan B. $500K may be the magic compromise number for tax relief for those with adjusted incomes below. But housing fell back this month this morning-except in the South and the MidWest so adroitly folks there are telling me the valuations really suck bigtime. So much for housing resurgence. Stupid is as stupid does.
And so it is off to the races this morning as silver continues to erode. Biden's assumption as gun czar actually may help gun co's that were on a tear until high special dividends and the awful SANDY school shootings put the nation in shock.--By defining the problem with a solution, a lot of the 2nd Amendment issues that are causing people to run to gun companies just may go away.
Markets up and silver is down. It doesn't look good for institutions to have losers on their books, but the big dump may be forestalled until next year if it is in their interests to take advantage of higher tax writeoffs, the same logic I used to say higher taxes meant business would spend to create jobs, instead of just handing the money over to Uncle Sam.
What a thought, take a risk and spend on hiring instead of paying Uncle Sam! Worked for 1946-1982 America, when single and partnership businesses rules the roost under 70% marginal income tax rates. But what do I know, I was just there during that time.
I was right about the gun stocks, as soon as Biden was announced as the gun czar, the whole area calmed down, and the 33% hit those gun manufacturers took started to abate. Most got an 8% pop today, and they'll garner back about 2/3 the distance they fell by 1 Jan. New Zealand's crime rate for home invasion and robbery soared after they banned and required the turn in of rifles, in the wake of the loss of habeus corpus last Dec under anti terrorism laws, and the President trying to usurp the Congress on the debt determination issues, now's not the time to be giving up any rights in the first ten Amendments.
We tried Prohibition in 1918 and gave up in 1931. Seems we need to get sober on gun control.
The fiscal cliff is being blamed for today's selloff, when in effect we had three poppy days in the general market. Gold and silver are being hammered, I wish they were being hammered into coins, but the prices are melting in a repeat of the beginning of 2010. I wonder where sh1thouserat is, this is the time he usually comes around and cries short.
I do know this, that SLW has once again started to behave more like AGQ than SLV. I like predictability, it helps investing, good bad or indifferent.
Looks like in the world of guns or silver, guns are winning long today.
In case you didn't notice, Boehner was trying to see if "Bush light" tax increases, to those over a million dollars a year, would fly, and this evening HE FAILED. In England that would have been a vote of no confidence. He can't bring home the bacon on compromise. Over the cliff we go, and it's coals in your stockings for XMAS, and more pressure on silver from those who have neartly forgotten, Ben is out of short term bonds to Twist, and is just printing the money. Conventional stupidity has all those silver and gold investors looking the other way, and the money is flowing out, not into PM.
For those who use puts or short, and I am not good at shorting at all, you're probably going to make a fortune short term until we start to see the effectsof all that printing.
Friday's economic numbers will pale in comparison to the Republican failure to coalesce around some kind of compromise, even if it is written out by their own leadership.
Hang on to your seats kids this is going to get mighty bumpy.
I enjoy the time and effort you put forth in giving your thought-out opinions. When reading your stuff, I'm thinking, jeeze I could be writing this.
Talk about unexpected, unintended and just plain unlucky events-- the fiscal cliff is going to be a marvel to watch
Thanks Zorba I try. Good luck to all spending time with folks you'd normally never even considering socializing with, but for the fact of happenstance making them relatives.
Much like #$%$ and Oblamer, even tho #$%$ has agreed to tax the millionaires, not the 250 thousandaires, a genuine breakthrough. Who knows what the next ten days will bring?
It's brought 84 yen to a "soaring" dollar. The dollar that was worth 320 yen in the sixties, and 131 yen in the 1991 and late 1990 time frame, is "soaring" to 84 from 76 yen. Whoppeeefuggingdoooooooooooooooo.
But it is having a toll on silver and gold values, and that is the buying op to come, since twist is over and print print print is the way for Bernookie.
Claims this morning is supposed to take the spotlight, but all that drivel about fiscal cliffs overshadows real news. Fact is, Plan B from the Republicans shows one thing clearly--that the Congress is not so broke that the mechanism of voting for something hasn't gone away. There are those that think that the procedures were thrown out with the rest of fiscal, money valuation and war declaration-the opinion of Congress is that low---a bill passed whatever it is, for hunting licenses for fish and wildlife, at least shows that the mechanism, if not our flag "was still there". O say does that vote making capability yet wave, over the land of the disintegrating dollar, and the home of Letterman Dave.
Like two fleas arguing over who owns the dog, nothing would be resolved even if a deal were reached, other than mitigate the uncertainty of no deal.
In a country where making your country's currency worthless passes for competition in the real world, nothing will resolve itself in the United States
a. until it stops being the world's policeman WW II style, and the world has to write a check to defend itself
b. until it stops creating and spending borrowed printing press dollars to finance wars against bedouins who had the temerity to be born over pits of oil,
c. until it stops being lazy and develops alternate oil energy strategies cars and home heating capabilities, It's only been 40 years since the oil crisis of the 1970's.
d. gets its money firmly backed by some basket of commodities, starting with gold and silver
e. stops creating entitlements that are built on printing press dollars, to bribe the US citizenry into thinking that a government is more than the sum of its tax revenues.
f. learns, like Germany has learned, that if you want social entitlements like pensions and healthcare, your ought to pay for them out of tax revenue, not printing press currency designed to disintegrate by half its buying power every 12 years, so you stay enslaved to the workplace for the rest of your life.
See how that should work?
For those in doubt about the gridlock we call Congress, #$%$'s failure to make his own Hail Mary pass fly in his part of the Congress is a major fail and return to the gridlock of the first Obama term. #$%$ in public compromise in private was the bedrock of our reputation from 1946-2007.
Silver is quiet so far having taken the drubbing of the century last week.
Market is off nearly two percent in futures. GLWT helping silver this morning.
What a mess. Let's see what lumps of coal in everyone's 401K does this morning.
It's Tuesday, do you know where your cliff is? Lots of talk in the shreds today about both sides bringing #$%$ fiday urfers to the table today, but nobody knows what. Maybe those making a mill or less will get a break, doesn't look to me like the Social Security party won't be over, as that hurts the maximum number of real people and raises the amount Congress can pilfer and leave a fist full of worthless paper. (As opposed to our currency, which is another fistful of worthless paper).
With the bounce waiting on "just be over already with this self inflicted gutshot wound" we might get it in the general market. Silver and gold are taking it in the rectum because lemmings think this tissue paper stuffing the hole of fiscal irresponsibility takes the edge off the value of real money, but the fact is, it doesn't.
Never catch a falling knife, unless you're a vampire waiting for blood. We get the deal, any weakness, it is time for both fists full of dry powder to be employed. And with the debacle going on in the gun business, there's no other place to put dry powder.