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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • yourdeadmeat69 yourdeadmeat69 Feb 5, 2013 8:27 AM Flag

    The Danger from the upwards jobs "revision" fopr Nov Dec.

    The auto based recovery, for people who haven't figured that one out yet, has replaced the traditional housing recovery. At least we have no illusions that cars don't depreciate into dust.

    The housing bubble has been punctured-perhaps for a generation-but that generation has only about five years to run--The auto binge has also led to a "revision" of jobs for Nov and Dec that boggles the mind--and poses a threat to low interest rates. Aside from the fact this number is an "inexact" science, the difference between what was reported and what has been revised is suspect to pump priming gestures. Gestures that are designed to create the illusion hiring by the real economy needs to "catch up". That may be the greatest magician trick of all--and yet--two more quarters of real or make believe 200K numbers will have folks talking about the end of the recession and the end of low irates. Folks who think they are "entitled" to 5% rates on no risk CD's, a myth made in historical chicanery and smoke and mirrors brought to you by paper currency, may be due a reward in about a year. The rest of the economy? Watch housing take another shot in the ballsack when those rates begin to climb. A 1/8 point this past winter meant a 10% decline in refi's and mortgage apps.

    There is a thought that the pop in irates next time might cause a surge in remaining refi applicants. If that come about in the middle of 2015 it will put a surge on homebuying, which should offset the 1/8 or 1/4 point pop. But there are those, like yours truly, that think the next four or five percent worth of pops over the next 36 months will absolutely strangle the housing market recovery, should it be showing any legs at all. I guess we all go back to buying new shiny depreciating cars.

    If you haven't locked in a fixed rate mortgage yet, now's the time over the next six-nine months IMHO if you can qualify to make that happen. I would also be sanguine about the currency side of silver being a drag, however badly perceived, since all of this is being built on $80B bond buying that is putting a TRILLION a year in printed paper nobody seems to be "counting" to deflate the dollar and create the illusion of prosperity.

    Hopefully this post, unlike my latest calendar post, won't disappear into the woodwork.

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