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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • powermountain2001 powermountain2001 Mar 21, 2013 10:50 AM Flag


    Given the fundamentals for this company, SLW price looks rather weak relative to what one would think it SHOULD be. So, I've been looking at the stock price history for clues as to why its down, and where it might go from here. THERE IS AN INTERESTING CORRLATION YOU MIGHT WANT TO LOOK INTO... I used the Yahoo charting tool for this.. but I would think you could do the same on any similar tool... COMPARE SLW TO SLV... find a time when the price of SLW is as close as possible to SLV, and use that date as the beginning of the comparison... THE WEEK OF SEPT 3, 2007... AND THE WEEK OF APRIL 23, 2010 WORKS VERY WELL. Comparing SLW vs SLV or those time periods to the present shows that SLW tracks SLV very nicely...EXCEPT THAT... if you use the september, 2007 time frame, SLW often trails SLV, especially when the general stock market is down, but leads it when the stock market is doing well. USING THE APRIL, 2010 TIME FRAME, SLW generally tracks or leads SLV... it rarely trails it.... MY INTERPRETATION OF THESE DATA IS THAT SLW IS SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS LEADING SLV MOST OF THE TIME, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE STOCK MARKET IS STRONG. This makes a lot of sense... in the beginning, SLW was not that strong of a stock, so it often lagged far behind SLV... As time has gone by, it has become an ever stronger stock relative to SLV, and now tends to lead SLV most of the time, BUT IT IS STILL A STOCK, SO TRENDS WITH THE GENERAL MARKET. This leads me to believe that SLW will TEND to hold a 10 to 25% premium over the price of SLV, with this premium generally rising IF the market is strong and rising, and falling if the market is falling, or weak... THAT PREMIUM IS NOW ABOUT 10%, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE STOCK MARKET IS TOPPING OUT AND HAS GOTTEN WEAK OVER THE LAST 2 WEEKS AS PEOPLE ARE GETTING NERVOUS ABOUT WHETHER THE MARKET IS ABOUT TO NOSE DIVE. based on all this, SLW could easily fall if slv and the market falls, BUT, long term, it shjould do well assuming SLV and the market do well.

27.82-0.87(-3.03%)Sep 23 4:02 PMEDT