15-19 April Economic Calendar: TAXING Situation: Silver Capitulation
Earnings: Citigroup, Charles Schwab, First Republic Bank
8:30 am: Empire State survey 9:00 am: TIC data 10:00 am: NAHB
Earnings: BlackRock (BLK), Coca-Cola (KO), Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Intel (INTC), CSX (CSX), Yahoo (YHOO), Comerica (CMA), Northern Trust (NTRS), U.S. Bancorp (USB), TD Ameritrade (AMTD), W.W. Grainger (GWW), Linear Tech (LLTC)
8:00 am: New York Fed President William Dudley 8:00 am: Chicago Fed President Charles Evans
8:30 am: CPI 8:30 am: Housing starts 9:15 am: Industrial production 12:00 pm: Fed Gov. Elizabeth Duke
4:00 pm: Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota
Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), American Express, eBay (EBAY), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), Burberry (London Stock Exchange: BRBY-GB), St. Jude Medical (STJ), PNC Financial (PNC), Mattel (MAT), Abbott Labs (ABT), Sandisk (SNDK), SLM (SLM), Textron (TXT), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Crown Holdings (CCK), Noble (NE), Quest Diagnostics (DGX)
7:00 am Mortgage applications 9:30 am St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 12:00 pm Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren 2:00 pm Beige book 4:00 pm Treasury Secretary Jack Lew on global economy at Johns Hopkins
Earnings: Google (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), IBM (IBM), Morgan Stanley (MS), PepsiCo (PEP), Philip Morris (PM), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Capital One (COF), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), ETrade (ETFC), Chipotle (CMG), United Health (OTCPK:UEEC), Verizon (VZ), Nokia (Helsinki Stock Exchange: NOK-FI), KeyCorp (KEY), AutoNation (AN), Blackstone (BX), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Fifth Third (FITB), PPG (PPG), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Snap-on (SNA), Union Pacific (UNP), Amphenol (APH), Nucor (NUE)
8:30 am: Weekly jobless claims 9:00 am Minneapolis Fed's Kocherlakota 9:30 am: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker 10:00 am: Philadelphia Fed survey 10:00 am: Leading indicators 12:00 pm: Fed Gov. Sarah Raskin
Earnings: General Electric, McDonald's, Kimberly-Clark, SAP
Silver was crushed last Friday in a capitulation that left the market stunned. I suspect a head fake, dead cat bounce to the upside, and another takedown. Call it a slowing world economy in give up mode, the bears have the edge as there is little in the PPI to suggest more than a whimper of inflation. My guess, and it is just a guess, that five years of near zero overnight rates and #$%$ unemployment figures reported, hidden, and coming--just mean more of the same low irates and low inflation, and that has taken the wind out of the sails and made the shorts happy. Can silver go lower?
Straddles are called for here, and that is above the heads of the buy and hold and hope inflation makes it look like an investment is climbing. The old magic just aint working, and you can get killed out here waiting for sanity and logic to prevail. Until we climb to a realistic 5% unemployment and those jobs represented aren't PHD's working at Walmart we've got a lot of stagflation to look forward to.
It is not an easy market to make money. It's a crapshoot.
Silver Lake is full of black swans, Chinese economy cools, and Boston terrorist attacks 2:45 EST--deliver a one two punch to silver which falls ANOTHER 12.5%. I'm surprised the attacks weren't blamed on the sequestration and US presence disappearing in a world where weapon system deployment depends on the availability of fuel. Operational dollars is the traditional place where defense gets cutbacks, so who knows what psychology affects those building #$%$ bombs. I guess the defense cheap shots are waiting to take place when not so obviously self serving.
Silver is off its all time highs by 50% and is at the retracement level of half the distance between all time high and low. We ought to get some good economic news today--anything would be better than the mess of sell sell sell building on itself for the bulls.
It's very treachy to be in the market right now anywhere, and as we all know, I stink at shorting, and we've been under the Bollinger bands for days now, not a place to buy or sell. Straddles make sense, but you can get killed in a stalled out market.
We're getting a bit of a bid, but it is just a bit. I won't even nibble till we get past the terrorist event, about three days from now.
Guess who is back touting short? It's shthouse rat, who in 2010 rode the downtrend in silver, and blew the same on the recovery about a year later as memory serves. Occassionaly he brings substance instead of just bashing, so he isn't your ordinary short basher--although why he has waited till SLW has been cut in half already to come forward beats me. PM there appears to be a bit of a pop in both market and silver.
In any case eyes are on google and claims, and google is not a given these days.
Fed Chairman Lacker babbles today, and his speeches have shown he is worried about market expectations that involve counting on the Fed safety net--meaning he isn't too thrill about bailing out anybody in a free market lest they've got hands out for handouts forever. Don't look for him to do anything but throw cold water on a market already punchy.