Over the last several, several months bears have dominated the action. Typically, any move bullish or bearish has at most 3 to 4 of what I'd call waves (similar to elliot wave patterns). In this last bear move the number of waves down depending on how you look at it was between 6 and 8. Extremely overextended. Some models I look at suggest $17 silver is likely based on that action.
Bulls are due a break. The current price setup although not optimal is as promising as it's been in a long time for bulls. I've been saying that any bottoming process will take the whole summer before one should consider getting really bullish. I'm not so sure of that now based not on what bernanke said or didn't say but on how the markets and commodities worldwide have digested the news over the last 24 hrs.
HERE WE GO LAYING IT ON THE LINE, FOR SILVER:
If it closes above 22.70 or higher on a 5 min chart of July 2013 silver, I think you get long and hold your breath. At this point is shouldn't go lower than $22.62. You can stop holding your breath and know that we have likely made the right trade with a 5 min close above 23.07 (I would add more long position here, depending on how long this price takes to be achieved). Closing below 22.49 on a 5 min basis for more than10 mins after breaking above 22.70 will mean I was wrong.
Get long any 5 min close close above $22.70 silver.
Get more long any 5 min close above $23.07 silver.
Stop out, if the price gets above 22.70 then falls back under $22.49.
For the conservative, take profits $23.80 silver. For the player, watch to see if it can get past $23.85, if it can, there's a heavy likelyhood it breaks through $24.578.
On a single futures contract, this trade risks $1050 to make $5500. All futures trading is highly speculative.
If this plays out, this would be about a 16% move in SLW upside in days. Silver Standard has been showing appreciably better gains than SLW the last week of watching, when there are gains.
Update: The trigger to get long price is $22.70. The so far high today on July silver is $22.60 and on the spot price $22.65.
There is some deterioration in the setup, suggesting sideways chop for the rest of the day to a short setup. $22.228 is a point below which shorts gain momentum and those antiicipating a bullish run, are essentially caught having to be stopped much lower techincally breaking the charts bullish setup for now.
I have no position because none of my targets have triggered.