It's the end of housing season, we've still got a hangover from Bernookie's taper tantrum, and the market looks for an excuse to screw itself. I expect claims to go down a bit, which adds to the nonsense that tapering will begin anytime before 2018, since housing has now reached the lofty valuation it had August 2004, and by definition, is about 30% "behind" inflation, had the bubble never existed.
I'm buying on dips.
Oct 21 10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Sep 5.29M 5.15M 5.30M 5.48M -
Oct 21 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/12 - NA NA 6.807M -
Oct 22 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Sep - 165K 183K 169K -
Oct 22 8:30 AM Nonfarm Private Payrolls Sep - 180K 183K 152K -
Oct 22 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Sep - 7.3% 7.3% 7.3% -
Oct 22 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Sep - 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -
Oct 22 8:30 AM Average Workweek Sep - 34.5 34.5 34.5 -
Oct 22 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 10/12 - NA NA 90 bcf -
Oct 23 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 10/19 - NA NA 0.3% -
Oct 23 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Sep - NA NA -0.1% -
Oct 23 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Sep - NA NA -0.2% -
Oct 23 9:00 AM FHFA Housing Price Index Aug - NA NA 1.0% -
Oct 23 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/19 - NA NA NA -
Oct 24 8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/19 - 330K 341K 358K -
Oct 24 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/12 - 2900K 2860K 2859K -
Oct 24 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Aug - NA NA 3.689M -
Oct 24 10:00 AM New Home Sales Sep - 410K 432K 421K -
Oct 24 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Aug - NA NA 3.689M -
Oct 24 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 10/19 - NA NA NA -
Oct 25 8:30 AM Durable Orders Sep - 4.2% 3.5% 0.1% -
Oct 25 8:30 AM Durable Goods -ex transportation Sep - 0.3% 0.3% -0.1% -
Oct 25 9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment - Final Oct - 73.0 74.5 75.2
Market loved the claims data, which showed an increase, and some minor pop in hiring, because it doesn't threaten stimulatum excretatum. Silver's pop is facing overnight drop of 1.5%. inexplicably PM wee hours. Durable good orders don't do that--maybe next week's rate decision is on folk's minds all of a sudden, the way pundits talk, all traders suffer from ADD. PM general market is all over the place. Here's my excuse--daytraders don't want to hold over the weekend.
Pure wall street drivel, but hey, maybe I can get paid for writing nonsense just like they do.
Jobless claims, the number folks rely upon to keep the low interest rates firmly in Fed sights, gets my gander this morning. Futures are generally up, silver is recovering slightly, in anticipation that bad news is good news, since most dorks who rely on this drivel believe Yellen, the Bernookie replacement, will first have a chance to pop irates around March 14, if things "improve". Besides being a mistress of printing money that makes Bernookie look like Volcker however, a gander at housing prices shows 30% decline from the "peak" of late summer 2007--that is the real objective of Fed policy, so that derivatives and the real estate bubble "go away". My thinking is Yellen will lower the objective of unemployment to 5.5%, a more normal number that had the Eisenhower administration cringing, before touching overnight rates. That is about 2018, and for my part, it's STILL a mistake, as real estate values will plummet the first quarter point INKLING of higher overnight rates.
But as to Thursday? It's time for a "pop" in wake of manufactured stats that measure employment by part timers as well as full timers, and a population that needs a doctoral degree minoring in computer science to make heads or tails of offerings at the Obamacare site.
The function of YDM's publication of the data, is not to provide the government version of the "truth", but to provide the version that is relied upon by the very moppets you track, sharpie, in your technical analysis of where the stock goes. Certainly it matters in the real world whether or not truth be told, or statistics represent, what is happening in the real economy.
But whatever is published, truth, lie or manipulative stat, the numbers that ARE published is what sways the masses, and that is the value of YDM's post.
In the military, the operations order contains a paragraph explaining the enemy's position. The paragraph is there, not because friendly forces AGREES with the enemy, but because that information is knowledge designed to defeat the enemy.
Do you get my meaning, or am I being too obtuse?
I will, gives the government a platform to lie, and they do, about every time their mouths open. Would love real economic data. Hours worked, at what wages, in what age group, percentage of age groups in workforce etc. Even income tax received from each group, sales tax collected. Hard and fast numbers that couldn't be spun a million ways. How about a weekly or monthly balance sheet. Income, outflow, how much was borrowed or paid back, how much governments owes. Total off budget liabilities. Amount owed by each of us and a graph to show increases and decreases. Federal reserve notes in circulation per capita. And breaking news, like the IRS overpaid the unearned income credit by billions etc on and on. In other words , quite lying and get the truth out. Not talking about mardermj's work, appreciate all efforts, was referring to quality of government data.
Mortgages and housing prices has my attention today. Futures are shrinking market wise, silver's pop yesterday has retracted by one fourth PM. Yesterday, loose money got a vote of confidence as industry knows better than to hire and jack up interest rates--or even the fear of ending QE forever. Pundits talk March 2014. I talk 2018, when housing "catches up" with August 2004 prices, about 30% reflating from now.
Wow. A repeat of Japan, without having to learn that difficult and mysterious language. What a boon.
When it has become very difficult to attribute truthfulness to government sponsored proclamations regarding economic activity, how can we expect to give any of it any mind?