28 OCT-1NOVE ECO CALENDAR: FED DOESN'T SAY BOO, Reality Bites
Real estate season ended in September, the pop in irates didn't help on the Bernookie tapering call in May. Notice the call pops irates overnight 1% but lowered rates will takes 9 months tho lending rates to banks remain 1/4%. Can you say invest in banks? FOMC will play the same song. Yawn.
Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast Market Expects Prior Revised From
Oct 28 9:15 AM Industrial Production Sep - 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -
Oct 28 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Sep - 77.9% 78.0% 77.8% -
Oct 28 10:00 AM Pending Home Sales Sep - -2.0% -1.3% -1.6% -
Oct 29 8:30 AM Retail Sales Sep - -0.2% -0.1% 0.2% -
Oct 29 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Sep - 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% -
Oct 29 8:30 AM PPI Sep - 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -
Oct 29 8:30 AM Core PPI Sep - 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% -
Oct 29 9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index Aug - 12.5% 12.4% 12.0% -
Oct 29 10:00 AM Business Inventories Aug - 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% -
Oct 29 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence Oct - 72.0 73.1 79.7 -
Oct 30 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 10/26 - NA NA -0.6% -
Oct 30 8:15 AM ADP Employment Change Oct - 125K 125K 166K -
Oct 30 8:30 AM GDP-Adv. Q3 - NA NA 2.5% -
Oct 30 8:30 AM Chain Deflator-Adv. Q3 - NA NA 0.6% -
Oct 30 8:30 AM CPI Sep - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Oct 30 8:30 AM Core CPI Sep - 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% -
Oct 30 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/26 - NA NA 5.246M -
Oct 30 2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision Oct - 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% -
Oct 31 7:30 AM Challenger Job Cuts Oct - NA NA 19.1% -
Oct 31 8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/26 - 335K 335K 350K -
Oct 31 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 10/19 - 2875K 2850K 2874K -
Oct 31 8:30 AM Personal Income Sep - NA NA 0.4% -
Oct 31 8:30 AM Personal Spending Sep - NA NA 0.3% -
Oct 31 8:30 AM PCE Prices - Core Sep - NA NA 0.2% -
Oct 31 9:45 AM Chicago PMI Oct - 52.0 55.0 55.7 -
Oct 31 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 10/26 - NA NA 87 bcf -
Nov 1 10:00 AM ISM Index Oct - 54.5 55.0 56.2 -
Nov 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Sep - NA NA NA -
Nov 1 2:00 PM Auto Sales Oct - NA NA 5.4M -
Nov 1 2:00 PM Truck Sales Oct - NA NA
Fed continues (yawn) stimulus and market tanks? Welcome to profit aching as 25% Ytd general marketgains have folks antsy. Dont expect tapering till 2018, not 2014, real estate is still off 30% before derivitives, the 100 Trillion dollar question everybody forgot comes out of the off book category Bernorkle relegated it to 2009, let alone 6.5 % unemployment becomes real, and Yellen says "we really meant 5.5%", which is frsnkly the right number. Silver, minus 1.5% today joins the cash makers, for similarly inexplicable reasons. Friday we should level off, but frankly, in a sea of nonsense, the market makes little sense today. Hoodie opened his mouth AH on FBs blowout numbers and turned a 20% gain FB common AH into a fifty cent loss, so some stupidity has xplanation.
There was a lot of oohing and ahhing at the slowdown of home SALES, but a mention that PRICES might increase as much as SIX PERCENT next year dulled the needless panic, since no one commented that the selling season was over for the fall winter season. Maybe somebody will remember, hopefully not the FOMC, but the market, scared needlessly since May taper announcement, now that FOMC has gone fallow (probably till 2018). The claim of March 2014 as the first time tapering will be introduced is another brain dead assumption, that Yellen, who makes Bernookie look like Volcker, will do anything to stop buying US bonds, let alone "taper", is nonsense designed to create drama faster than a room full of bipolar sufferers.
It's nonetheless the cringe before the binge, as the FOMC decision, a foregone conclusion of zilch, rears its head.
Back to school means out of the real estate market, so nobody has called the natural seasonal downtrend expected except yours truly. Measuring the economy by unemployed forgets the huge profits made by firms amongst the 84% who do have jobs, hence the stock markets brushing against "record highs" (except for the NASDAQ, which needs to put in a 5400 number before reaching the highs of the bubble in 2000)---but part timers today are a burgeoning cancer that used to be relegated only to the shadow economy, which works for cash, and is known only to the public as day laborers waiting for a job outside home depot, gardeners, and criminals. While many rail at public workers, about 20 million stateside and in federal jobs, because they can be seen, I wonder at how many "illegals" making money would simply destroy the economy if not in the shadow economic world they have relegated themselves to?
If they buy for cash and are gone, doth not Marshalls and TJ Max bleed?