Measuring jobs during the XMAS season miscues the actual economy, the 7.0% unemployment figure is about to take a bust, but not until January is reported and the XMAS hire drifts out of the economy. In the meantime you don't fight the ticker. Silver is up on the dollar decline, but I think it is short lived -- for the next six weeks for you swing traders can make money being bullish. When the truth is known, to be lies, you'll want somebody to love when the market sees what the real economy looks like, but not yet, not yet. It all converges with the FOMC statement next week, but it also converges with the next budget snafu in January, and the dawn that we are in bubble territory. How do I know? The "taper" rumor of May, just began to slice away at pricing of existing homes these past two weeks, about 2% has disappeared off the top of home values, which are only at August 2006 values. 1/4 are still underwater, and 1/3 more can just break even.
Those that say no taper are right, but those that say out of the woods are whistling dixie.
Dec 10 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Oct - 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -
Dec 10 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Oct - NA NA 3.913M -
Dec 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 12/07 - NA NA -12.8% -
Dec 11 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Purchase Index 12/07 - NA NA -12.8% -
Dec 11 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 12/07 - NA NA -5.585M -
Dec 11 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Nov - -$140.0B -$140.0B -$172.1B -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Initial Claims 12/07 - 325K 315K 298K -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 11/30 - 2750K 2750K 2744K -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales Nov - 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Nov - 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Nov - NA NA -0.4% -
Dec 12 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Nov - NA NA 0.0% -
Dec 12 10:00 AM Business Inventories Oct - 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% -
Dec 12 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 12/07 - NA NA NA -
Dec 13 8:30 AM PPI Nov - -0.1% -0.1% -0.2% -
Dec 13 8:30 AM Core PPI Nov - 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% -
Budget is off the table, as Congress shoots to increase its approval rating 15%!! (From 6-7%), and the futures are brightening, as silver and SLW continue to take it in the keister. Today's bottom feeding in PM is taking a positive tilt, as are futures for the general market. As long as they keep lying about inflation this morning (Chicken is up 30% this year, along with 20% for bacon) PPI/CPI numbers will quiet the ridiculous self induced taper scare at least today, notwithstanding Chicken Little's touting, would you stay long over the weekend?
Yeah, we'll stay long, because the Congress which should have the entire burden of goosing the economy, is doing first part-- not gumming up the works with ideological gridlock-with a budget deal-at least that much-- while doomsayers will keep pointing to the FOMC decision Wednesday of next week as the day Benookie screws up his legacy by not learning his lesson of May and replaying the taper card.
Never will happen, if smart, Yellen will lower the employment goal to 5.5%, which should drag us into 2016 at the least. Why? 5.5% was the level at which we had cardiac arrest in the fifties and sixties, as it was then, not 6.5%. 4.5% was considered full employment.
Mark my words. In the meantime, silver is getting it in the butt because its play as a commodity is being undermined, by "financial stability", and the real industrial use, which is down because big ticket manufacturing isn't using up the metal as quickly as full steam ahead industrially would inure.
In the meantime, silver investors take it inureazz. Not good.
As I posted a couple days ago.. With the new budget deal there will be 4 million unemployed going off Obamas "official " unemployment rolls. Whats 4 million less being counted as unemployed do to the rate. Knock off a half percent or so ?
7% unemployment? Now, that my friend is a real laugh. Yes, they want you to believe that unemployment is at that level, but all economic data reports are periodically readjusted when they think no one is looking. Truth be told, unemployment in the U.S. is actually in the neighborhood of 23%, but you are not suppose to know that.
Same with the national debt. They want you to believe the national debt is around what 16 or 17 trillion, when actually it is 20 times higher....... like more in the neighborhood of 222 plus trillion). A lot of this debt was kept off the books so the population is not made aware of it.
Claims should be down in November as the last of the XMAS hire takes hold, but I look to mid JANUARY report, just about debt ceiling time, to toss markets into the crapper when those folks go back to floating resumes--so I expect a lot of profit taking and no SANTA CLAUS rally especially since FOMC announces 6 days away--the CHICKEN LITTLE sky is falling market will chew another 3-4% OFF THE TOP next 3-4 sessions, the cringe before the binge runs two weeks later into debt ceiling votes, and both houses of Congress are yet to vote on the budget 'deal so shaky, markets didn't react to the announcement of one yesterday at all, except to sell off MORE. Housing prices but for the usual East and West Coast hotspots, are DOWN 3% from August 2004 recovery prices back to JUNE 2004. Tapering, and resultant bond implosion and mortgage rate explosion, anyone? Can you hear me Yellen?
Otherwise all is well as good news remains bad news. See how that works?
Reuters ran an article that says fear the taper, BECAUSE it looks like we have a budget deal and won't go into crisis mode January!!!!! Talk about teeth clenched tightly around Uncles teeet! I thought a budget deal was supposed to be a good thing, an early XMAS present for the market--not a whimper from Mr Market. Nothing matters except the cost of money--to banks--NONE of this is drifting down to joesixpac in the real economy, now made up mostly of Walmart serfs at $25K a year.
Silly me. Budget deals have nothing to do with the pomp and circumcision of DEBT LIMITS, Congress neatly and wrongly says spend the money but don't borrow in January anyway, that's probably the background for the markets blase approach to that January budget quandary being deep sixed early. Such Congressional "consistency" is the reason why they have a 6% approval rating, less than the number of relatives they gather dysfunctionally around dead fire trap pine needles to show off their latest Fatsammatta 8000 4 ton SUV with overhead clams, gaudy carved rocks on fingers, and new boobs 25 December, downing Pepto Bismol, forgetting they're supposed to be whining into an empty sky begging for baubles, and putting up with folks that for chance, they wouldn't even bother with.
The banks had a field day, some pop in mortgage making even tho rates are about 4.75% (while banks borrow at 1/2%) means that the first tapering process will escalate those rates to 6.75% in a heartbeat, markets discounting the entire runup up front, as they do. So if you believe the figures, a major headache for most of us that can think and read, things are improving so drastically, Yellen will pull the rug out from all of this, no, wait, BERNANKE, just as he is walking out the door, will announce he was kidding the past five years, and ruin his legacy, instead of leaving it all to the Yellenmeister.
Yeah, that's going to happen for sure. But here on planet earth, I bet things will be different.
Mortgage Purchase Index is about to take a hit, if you look at zillow, you'll see THREE percent has disappeared from the rebloating of housing prices now, and that's without a pop in the ten year, just a tapering announcement just a week away? Bennie's last finger to the world that doesn't appreciate him, a legacy of balloon popping, or, as planned will he leave it to Yellen? One thing is certain, the drones of financial writing will stir that pot no matter how empty, Yellen won't do zilch until 2018 unless you want the equity market to blow up in your face. Just the HINT of tapering has popped real estate rates in May, has caused the six month ripple effect exacerbated by winter, see sentence one above. See you at 7AM, when the mild sell off we saw yesterday general market gets a kick in the #$%$, because pundits are fanning the flames of taper without mercy, or much intelligence for that matter.
Want to see how worried the top five percenters are? Watch Smith and Wesson this morning gop through the roof. I bet you a dollar shares will be 7% more expensive by end of day, as MREITS climb that are still paying north of 10%. Like silver's 3% pop yesterday, now off one percent today, SWHC is the catch of the day for daytraders, and CYS and NLY for high yield junk that has MORE than overreacted to a potential taper, they've been cut in half. What did the blowhard of Omaha say? Buy when other's sell?
Once more into the breach.
It has been noticed that you copy and past these stats from another website. Here we do not understand the format, in particular the way the percentages are displayed because there is no header column. Lack of a header column is understandable because Yahoo message boards can’t display in tabulated form.
Could you please provide, in particular, what the heading would be for each of the percentage/job # claims?
While the website was discovered for what you’ve provided, it does require registration which is always declined.
It is somewhat exhilarating, albeit double-edged, to watch the financial opera play out. Jumping ahead, because these are not exactly uncharted waters, of course, all with ample real life models with which to compare it, gives a sense that you know what the crystal ball already says.