30 Dec 13 -3 Jan 14 Economic Calendar: Coasting into '14 Happy(?) New Year
Homes cars mortgages confidence, a light trading week, and the govt will paint a rosy picture they can always change next reporting period, so the start to the New Year, classically the next week after should "tell" the soothsayers the rest of the year. For next week, with budget "behind" us, and only the debt ceiling in the late Feb Mar, will it be eat drink and be merry? Traditionally, yes.
See how that is supposed to work?
30 DEC Pending Home Sales Index 10:00 AM ET Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 AM ET 3-Month Bill Auction 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 AM ET 4-Week Bill Auction 1:00 PM ET Farm Prices 3:00 PM ET
31 DEC TUESDAY ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 7:45 AM ET Redbook 8:55 AM ET S&P Case-Shiller HPI ]9:00 AM ET Chicago PMI 9:45 AM ET Consumer Confidence 10:00 AM ET State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
Early Close 2:00 ET
New Year's Day All Markets Closed
2 JAN THURSDAY MBA Purchase Applications 7:00 AM ET Gallup U.S. Job Creation Index 8:30 AM ET Jobless Claims 8:30 AM ET PMI Manufacturing Index 8:58 AM ET Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index 9:45 AM ET ISM Mfg Index 10:00 AM ET Construction Spending 10:00 AM ET EIA Petroleum Status Report 11:00 AM ET 3-Month Bill Announcement 6-Month Bill Announcement 52-Week Bill Announcement 3-Yr Note Announcement 10-Yr Note Announcement30-Yr Bond Announcement ALL AT 11:00 AM ET Fed Balance Sheet 4:30 PM ET Money Supply 4:30 PM ET
3 JAN Motor Vehicle Sales EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 AM ET Charles Plosser Speaks 12:45 PM ET Jeremy Stein Speaks 1:15 PM ET Jeffrey Lacker Speaks 1:30 PM ET Ben Bernanke Speaks 2:30 PM ET Charles Plosser Speaks 5:00 PM ET
Slv and Slw all over the place as Fed warblers told a story about balance sheets more important than Mom and Pop in the real economy. Half the inventory of belly up homes is off the books, but even half is a gut blow to banks. Folks who heard Fed "committed to low interest rates" after jawboning them up one percent (while lending at nearly zilch still to those self same banks) think all of them should be committed period.
Rigged inflation figures that remove food and fuel have Congressional mouths shut, a silver lining normally but now awaiting someone to yell bulltschit and watch it all crumble.
Silver was up nearly 4% only to fall back to 2/3% i Woof.
Job creation index backs off slightly to 19 from 20. But doesnt reflect yet Xmas layoffs. Market is off but silver is rocketing 3.5% on a bid something has got to give, and they're siding with inflators at the Fed or better business moving forward or both. Did we bounce off a botto too?
Its deep as snow predicted NY, a thin volatile trading day. GLTA.
How do we cook books? Let me count the ways. Mortgage app drop? Why it's winter! Jobless claim flat? Xmas hire's reflected next week, same week Jan 8 Fed notes last taper announcement hits the fan. See how that works? Meantime silver's industrial side posts a 3% o'night pop after a 30% selloff year as opposed to a 30% GAIN for the market as a whole. 2013, where dumbo buy and holders beat hedgies and traders into the toilet.
How long before he kid yells Emperor has no clothes? Can you hear me Yellen yet? Reflator or third guy on a match for Yellen.
Happy New Year as steller market gains up 30% while PM fall 30%. Obunglecare's reality, and all will be balanced out with 20 year olds insured against Alzheimers and 70 year olds paying for prenatal care, the whole health field coludes to triple revenue and your health bills. Bernankee's Xmas present to banks, taper talk, has them raking in 4.5% versus 3.5%mortgage loans, and housing reflation came to a crashing halt while refi shops bankwide closed shop in record numbers. America's flush with part timers and McJobs at 25K a year is supposed to represent "pent up" housing demand, and numbers might show it bcause reporting period lag hasn't revealed last six weeks of 4% home price deflation of homes under $650,000, you have to run past zillow to see that.
And now that tapering's being done, wait till the housing bust to end this eye of the storm financial holiday.
The average number of mortgage applications slipped 6.3% to a 13-year low on a seasonally adjusted basis as interest rates rose from the previous week, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Tuesday.
“Following the Federal Reserve‘s taper announcement, mortgage application volume dropped again last week, with rates increasing and refinance application volume falling to its lowest level since November 2008,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics
On an unadjusted basis, MBA said the market composite index fell 7% from the previous week. The refinance index dropped 8% from the prior week, while the seasonally adjusted purchase index eased 4%.
This commentary was posted on The Wall Street Journal's blog site late on Tuesday morning