Iriarte has an analysis update on Safehaven punction commercial. Summary comment is "Overall this wave count expects more upwards movement with smaller corrections along the way." It is congruent with Sharpie, Cowboy and other EW TA folks on the board which might be confirming or consistant analysis of the same manipulated data. I am taking it as confirming a near term upward bias with an explosive upward move in the future and the bottom being put in this past late summer and fall. I am thinking we will know in the not to distant future.
I just took a look at what may be an ascending trend/support line for SLW by connecting the lows of late June and early and late December. Also have a squint at AGI, you can use the same points plus an earlier point at the April lows. It seems to be another longer term suggestion that we may be turning longer term directional trend for PM stocks even though the same look at GDX does not support the thought.
Are you saying that downward PM price manipulation is no longer possible? Have the central banks and their allied interests lost control? It seems you forgot the big “IF” statement within the source you cited and instead relied on message board posters. There is far too much of the subjunctive mood within the article to arrive at your conclusion.
It would seem, from the vantage point here, which we have enough near term history to be very cautious about, that claiming the downward course of PM pricing has ended lacks certainty. When worldwide governments allied with central banks and large corporations, dependent on fiat money, control currency output and other related levers, how can it be said with any certainty that those methods have become impotent? HFT (High Frequency Trading) places those who oppose criminal manipulators of market pricing at a distinct disadvantage, especially when “regulators” are part of the scam. When the cops fail to act it is up to people to protect themselves with a cautious approach.
The opinion here would be to wait for definite upticks in PM sector prices before committing limited funds lest more manipulative downdrafts lead to the conclusion, “Darn! We should have waited.” The more who successfully pick bottoms, the better the chances are we can have these criminals tried and sent to jail, or have them granted more severe penalties through the courts here. We don’t want to continue to have more Jon Corzine’s breaking the law with no consequences. What other countries do is up to them when the pent up anger of their populations explodes.
Permanent solutions are the best course of action, which means most people successfully buy in at the bottom of the PM sector, and are not misled into jumping in too soon.
Good post Hapi, I reread my missive and find it to be a bit more positive than I am with my resources. I certainly agree that more price manipulation is possible and even probable, but lately it seems that the downdrafts are met with a little more buying strength. Also, the lows of last summer seem to be holding which is comforting, albeit not certainty that the support cannot be broken. At some point, western central banks are going to run out of supply for delivery to the east and then physical prices will run away from paper prices. That decoupling may be enough to convince enough folks that the fiat control powers are really toothless as the only thing they have going for them is full faith...
I also think the control of interest rates is being lost slowly. 10 and 30 year bonds are inching up flirting with 3% and 4% respectively. That is going to slow housing and other markets slowing the economy even more, with the resultant tax revenue decreasing. More unemployment, more transfer payments from the productive to the unproductive, more deficit spend and the cycle continues into a downward spiral. Our politicians havn't the guts to fix the problems they created by buying votes and pandering to special interests that fund their campaigns.
As for the TA, I believe the folks practicing the art are dealing with a stacked deck. It has to be near impossible to predict manipulation from past performance. I enjoy trying to understand all they post, but for me the main data point is that recent lows have held for about a half year as far as chart reading goes. The fundementals say every fiat currency fails in the end, just predicting the timing and what happens between now and the final path to demise is tough, maybe impossible.