7 Feb the #$%$ jobs report was spun by CNBC and Yahoo pundits into something worthwhile, as if failing expectations by HALF was a good thing. The market engaged Friday in a self flagulatory short squeeze, and the dip in unemployment to 6.6% close to Fed target? A statistical phart caused by starved to death workers whose unemployment ran out. 10 Feb JOLTS job openings talks December, it is useless as a forward indicator, still carrying XMAS on its shoulders. So the only number worthwhile is claims claims claims, and we saw Friday the irrationally exuberant fed themselves a treat on employment numbers that sucked.
How many shots to the nuts until markets wake up? My perception, it's like making love to a zombie, there's no resistance, she may have a nice rack, and all that flailing around a great substitute for passion, but when the stink hits you, and you get bit and infected, you may get the feeling something in infinitely wrong.
I play it as it lays, but that day is fast approaching. Maybe if housing continues its price downward spiral, somebody notices--and cares??? GLWT
Feb 11 10:00 AM JOLTS - Job Openings Dec - NA NA 4.001M -
Feb 11 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories Dec - NA NA 0.5% -
Feb 12 7:00 AM MBA Mortgage Index 02/08 - NA NA 0.4% -
Feb 12 10:30 AM Crude Inventories 02/08 - NA NA 0.440M -
Feb 12 2:00 PM Treasury Budget Jan - NA NA $2.9B -
Feb 13 8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/08 - NA NA 331K -
Feb 13 8:30 AM Continuing Claims 02/01 - NA NA 2964K -
Feb 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales Jan - NA NA 0.2% -
Feb 13 8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jan - NA NA 0.7% -
Feb 13 10:00 AM Business Inventories Dec - NA NA 0.4% -
Feb 13 10:30 AM Natural Gas Inventories 02/08 - NA NA -262 bcf -
Feb 14 8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jan - NA NA 0.3% -
Feb 14 8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jan - NA NA -0.1% -
Feb 14 9:15 AM Industrial Production Jan - NA NA 0.3% -
Feb 14 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jan - NA NA 79.2 -
Feb 14 9:55 AM Mich Sentiment Feb - NA NA 81
Claims up, retail down, but market finishes off with a flourish. Silver too. Market is whizzing into the wind, but enjoying the cool spray, general market futures down all night 13 Feb, recovers to positive at 5AM EST, looks like folks in the Northeast are shoveling snow BACK onto the sidewalk! Silver is up 1.5% this AM, as some feel SOMETHING is terribly wrong here.
Ain't no doubt, but never fight the bull stampede. You can get trampled.
It's claims--and with long term claimers off the roles slowly starving to death or staging home invasions--up in my neighborhood dramatically--that holds my attention, with Retail sales before the bell. Dutures reflect it, a one percent downer today wiping meager gains -- those market Bollinger Bands are playing with explosive downside force--where/s the catalyst for upside movement? Europe goes to negative interest rates to keep banks thinking it's unwise NOT to lend to Juansixpac, but, will they or just take a quarter point hit for stashing cash at their Fed equivalents? All that incentive is newly minted and down a road filled with potholes.
All that capacity tomorrow, and nobody hired to fulfill it, or buy end product, except the luckily still employed 86% and holding stubbornly steady. Pundits talk about a momentum market--that's a market that goes up because it goes up, not because fundamentals evidence it. 3/4's firms are exceeding expectations--which are miserably low expectations to begin with.
Silver looks a bit exhausted. SLW is only loosely related on a daily basis to the price of silver, now almost a year. GLWT
Mortgage MBA stats show a minimal improvement over the dismal December--but they're still HALF the rate of a year ago. It's the hand grenade in the market recovery. Nobody is talking about it, but the futures for stocks, off to a heady start all night long, have dwindled to a minus. Silver is flat as a pancake.
It's another day to binge watch episodes of 24 in anticipation to the mini series coming May.
Relax. Overall, corporate earnings are improving, the economy is improving, and the secular trend for the market is UP. Stay long quality stocks, and you'll be fine. SLW is an excellent PM proxy for a small portion of your portfolio.
Mortgage apps are going to give the market a sense of how the retail home business is "healing". But the layoffs in the banking industry tell me the refi business has dried up. It isn't how good the rate, it's how lousy the average salary is, driving the ability to pay and qualify. With wages DOWN last 12 years from average $55K to $50, and qualifications required up dramatically, no matter how justified, refi ing house or buying a new one is a MATH TEST once again. Yellen may be "staying the course" but without support from Fed or foreign buyers, the yield on the ten year will remain stubbornly drifting higher. If corporations continue to hoard instead of hire, they may be able to write checks instead of obtaining fresh money, long into an interest rate adjustment, but that conversation is months away.
For now, the cloud is on the horizon, the Fed will push the limits of the broken economy as far as it can, until it breaks, and everyone will call it a "healthy" correction, as if a kick in the ballls is a "stress test".
We just keep ignoring the fundamentals, we'll be celebrating like it's 1999. BOHICA.
Ready for a JOLT? WE get to find out if, after five years of stagnant growth, whether or not the jobs forecast looks fulfilling, or empty drilling. For the most part the week is claims claims claims and marble mouth Yellen's Bronx cheer called bond buying tapering, you know, where the market squeezes the meager real estate reflation back to March 2009 by allowing mortgage rates to climb. She gets on stage a couple times this week, to tell us, we're growing, however tepidly, and the Fed is going to keep pounding that spike into the real estate reflation, now off 6% from the "high" of August 2004 prices, to the "low" of January 2004. That right, anyone who bought after that time is probably under water. Glub glub.
Are they still historically low? Sure, and if we'd experienced the regular dissolution of the dollar since 2000, those families making $55,000 a year would be making $73,000 a year, and those rates would be a bargain, the best, I ever had, uh had, ah had--the best I ever HADDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!
But "WHO" knew, that the average nominal salary would have SHRUNK to $50,000 making even 4.5% mortgage rates impossibly high for mover uppers--they're all sitting there in part time Micky D $25K a year jobs.
That's why the quality of the JOLT is so important. And Yellen, will disappoint by playing the taper card, the Fed, the market will finally get through its head, is leaving the building. And however slow they do an Off the Broadway off the stage, that series of hike-apoos will appear another JOLT.
In the meantime, the silver hounds are betting today on more stimulatum excretatum. I hope they'd be betting on an improving economy. Neither is happening. It's pure hope a dope. GLTA.