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Silver Wheaton Corp. Message Board

  • sami0418 sami0418 Mar 24, 2014 11:56 AM Flag

    Why has silver tanked like a stone...not the usual retrace? Sharpie, Kazan, Cowboy, Sandy... please pitch in

    Whats going on TA's?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Hey Sami, This is the Large Wave 4 down I've been expecting (thinking it was going to happen a week or two ago). We hit the 50% retrace at 23.20 (23.19 on chart) , so we might get a little bounce here to 23.59. After that, I concur with Sharpie and think that we head down for a 5th and final wave. A few possible price points are 22.63 (which is close to Sharpie's 22.72 and the 200 Day Moving Avg at 22.81). However, I also have two correlating charts showing 21.79 & 21.88 and so those price points are a possibility. Then we should head back up.

      PS Yeah, I closed my position on Friday and missed the move down. Just went long for this little bounce off the 50% retrace we hit.

    • Pray Sharpie is right on the 28.45 Sandy, I too am long and taking quite a thrashing! Did buy the Jan 2015 25 calls at 2.5. Think the best way to trade this stock is the leaps. I never seem to get the regular option timing right much as I read and learn :(

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sami0418
      • Looks worse than it really is due to sell-stops being triggered, you get a cascade effect. A lot of this seems driven by option activity -- probably overdone IMO. Buyers of physical will come in pretty soon, probably in $1300 area if not sooner.

        From recent Kitco article by Allen Skyora (look for "Gold Options Expiry Approaches; Traders Eye Open Interest At $1,300 And Above"):

        "Some see potential for pressure on gold over the next two days due to the large number of open interest for strikes in April options at $1,300 an ounce, while others say there could be support at the $1,325-$1,335 area due to other options-related factors."

        "A commodity tends to gravitate toward an area with significant options open interest due to something called “pinning,”

        "... some selling is likely occurring from options traders who do not want to take on a futures contract due to factors such as margin calls, which is collateral to hold a futures position. They’re selling ahead ..."

    • A = 24.53 , B = 25.55 C = 22.72 , then up perhaps 28.45 , 4 / 11 or 4 / 15 ( lunar eclipse ) latest guess, long with April 25.00 call

    • My belief was that $25 was going to hold for SLW, albeit intraday it had failed which made me nervous. I did hold my long position, so I am down quite a bit today and planning to hold strong. Sharpie, Kaz and others have called for this correction so kudos to them. Today, I bought a few leaps as I am confident this stock is going higher. That being said, several posters have mentioned that SLW is dependent on their counter parties staying in business to make good on their streaming contracts. I share that concern as at least a couple contracts have come under scrutiny recently, like AXU putting their mine in care and maintenance waiting on better product pricing.

23.95-0.34(-1.40%)4:02 PMEDT