T/A charts suggest several retrace points. I will list them below for you with my opinion as to the most likely retrace targets. The below retrace points assume that the 26.10 is the high and that this recent 6.07 dollar move up is a Large Wave 1 up and therefore the retrace will be a Large Wave 2 down.
23.07 - 50 % retrace - (Minimum amount that this retrace needs to go to, most likely goes lower than here.)
22.35 - 61.8 % retrace
21.33 - 78.6 % retrace - Highly likely and Most Probable Retrace point. (This is where I believe we go).
20.03 - 100 % retrace - Can go here and then bounce. Happens a lot also. If we go below here, we violate the EW rules and head lower. as this is the max that we can retrace without breaking the uptrend.
Hope this helps you out. Good luck. :)
I was wondering if the surge in commercial shorts is miners selling product to lock in the current price. If so, then this could be a resistance point in the charts rather than signalling a significant correction. Thoughts?
I read Maund and think some type of correction is very likely; though it may only work out to be a consolidation. I've been more wrong than right for the past 2 years. So with that track record in mind here's my latest bit of hopium.
With regard to the COT, I've been watching and listening to analysis every week for the past 2 years. It seems almost every week as the PM market continued its sickening decline,---
I would hear something to the effect that the commercials ("those closest to the action and pulling the strings") were net long (sometimes massively net long) which was considered quite bullish. However, week after week PM's would continue the decline despite the long position. When was the commercial long position going to turn this thing around???? IF their long position didn't change the cousre of the market what would?
The large specs were finally motivated to unwind and their short position, which had to go somewhere so I suspect that explains the massive increase in the commercial short position. As always, they will manage the prices and probably always end up with the bulk of the money in the long run.
. I think the significant take away is that the large specs may have switched sides. The large specs seemed to have "driven" this market on the way up in 2011 and again on the way down after 2012.
I'm hoping we've seen a fundamental change in the structure of the market participation. The large specs and funds are supposedly always wrong "in the end."
I think the commercials will always give the speculators enough rope to hang themselves whether it be on the way up or on the way down. Hopefully that was the end of the big decline and they have started a longer running up-wave.