RC will never pay the $21 mil. It's absurd. This lawless, O.J. like verdict, handed down by two drunken anti-mexican surrender monkeys, will be appealed to a mexican court that (once they wake up) will giddily revel in mocking the French and overturning their cheese-ridden verdict. The mexicans will stop drinking tequila and begin showering three times a day long before we even have to conceive of anything near this amount actually being paid out.
RC's enterprise value, assuming full payout of this absurd number, would be reduced by $1/share. That means this company is worth around $16 (in a fire sale) instead of $17 (in a fire sale). And that's assuming a payout. Which, as I said, will only happen when mexicans start waking up and getting to work before noon.
RC's business is more profitable without Vivo.
RC was obscenely cheap before this ruling. Now it is putridly cheap. Sell it now and hate yourself forever.
This company could be bought out at any time. And the Aguirre's wouldn't accept anything less than $15-$18, especially with 2006 around the corner (and the $45-$60 million in free cash flow that is guaranteed to come to them that year). Guaranteed. That's a fact.
So to all you little girlie-men who are wondering where it all went so horribly wrong and why you panic sold at the low, know this: this is perhaps the cheapest stock in the market today. And for this glorious buying opportunity you can thank the French, an investor relations department that has been passed out in a cloud of tequila for about ten years now, and a stock that is about as liquid as scott schwartz's primary bank account.
Be bearish and pay a horrible price. You will wallow in self loathing for years, wondering where it all went so wrong. And after you pull the trigger, the last thing that passes through your brain (before the bullet) will be wonderment at how Gutierrez Dufreysne Vivo ever got the best of you.