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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

  • happy_henry happy_henry Mar 4, 2013 3:58 PM Flag

    Now down 11 consecutive days, from 3.91 to 2.61 = -50%.

    Remarkable. 11 down days in a row. Intraday that is exactly a 50% drop from 3.91 to 2.61 today (now up slightly from that low so "only" down about 47%). On essentially no substantive changes in the business.

    I'm nearly tapped out since 3.05 or would be tripling down today at

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "no substantive changes in the business" ???

      actually they were forced to amend their term loan and pay back some of it way ahead if schedule - otherwise they would have already defaulted on the loan covenants - by the way these were not eliminated but just waivered until June 2014 (when they will ultimately default on this loan)

      net new order intake was negative $125 mln for the quarter

      will debook another $300 mln in backlog at the end of Q1

      additionally Q1 revenue guidance was only half of analyst estimates

      potential Saudi Arabia contract pushed back once again

      I wonder what needs to happen until you call an event "substantive" - perhaps when they will try to restructure the convertible loans at the end of this year...

    • Hey Happy Henry why so bullish with this stock? Just started to do research but the company is facing headwinds in the current environment. Do you think the company starts seeing revenue expansion by the end of 13? Buy low and selling high is always good but the sector seems to need consolidation. Expand on your thoughts about the company going futher. Thanks

      • 2 Replies to gagielom
      • The company has some unique tech that won't be easily replaceable. This is why I feel okay holding a lot of this here. The company worst case seems much more likely to get bought out for their many assets than go bk. Bottom line, it has hung on through some brutal times in the solar market (while others have bled and bled), diversified smartly, invested their r&d toward the likely massive upgrade cycle for solar coming next year, as grid parity continues, as well as other very interesting tech like sapphire screens for mobile, and more emerging tech.. So yes I see cash flow likely turning around by later this year. And if we do see consolidation GT is in a unique position so stands to profit a lot more than many others who are all alike, commodities.

        I'm usually more of a trader than a long term holder, but in this case the potential rewards several months or a year out make it worth holding on to. A triple or better within a year seems like a real possibility, and worth the risk of dropping much further from here at 2.65.

      • whatever you do, proceed with caution

        This stock is a hold for its long term potential, but not a buy because it's not undervalued. don't be fooled by the graphs, the price decline is well deserved. Their cash position has deteriorated. In the reward/risk analysis, reward has been held more or less fixed for a few months now, but 'risk' has increased so this went into the valuation of the stock.

        It needs somewhere to rally from if/when risk is reduced again. It could end up doing this from $2.0 or less easily. My advice, it's only a buy here if your intention is to long term hold, and even then you should buy it in parts. It may/could/probably will get lower than this.

        good luck.

    • down 33% but would need a 50% increase to get back to 3.91.

 
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