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GT Advanced Technologies, AŞ Message Board

  • djhmk2 djhmk2 Aug 18, 2013 2:01 PM Flag

    Monday's trading

    I do not see another pop for Monday (tomorrow). It rose to $6.64 Friday & settled back to $6.27 so I doubt shorts will race to cover & even support the $6.27 closing price. Here is why. Its last pop to $6.20 resulted in a 3 day trailing drop of $1.02 off that $6.20 pop to a low of $5.18. I am only estimating a minimum of a 4 day pullack this time and most likely more than the $1.02 drop of last time. The primary reason for my thoughts are that its current RSI is SO OVERBOUGH at 80.99 ( highest it has been in the entire last 52 weeks). RSI does not lie & at 80.99 GTAT is very unstable & very overbought. Shorts know this too & will not cover on a one day pullback even if it is very dramatic.
    JMO , I will not buy long again until we see the mid to lower $5 range. If it does not show me that amount of pullback I will buy some other stock that is more stable.
    I am not bashing GTAT, just trying to view it realistically.


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    • Keep an eye out for smaller move in the upper range on lower volume signaling a stall in buying pressure.

      Traders shorts long term holders giving up at break even tends to coincide with slower buying and any sign of weakness, regardless of potential. Even if you're holding and adding it pays to wait till then to add to get bang for the buck

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Last time RSI was this high, about 07/18-19/2013, the stock tailed off $0.25 (close to close not all the intra-day highs and lows) after about 8 days.

      The time before that was about 05/20/2013 when it dropped about $1.10 from about $4.53 to the low of $3.44 on about 06/23/2013 (Again close to close not the high and low intra-day on any given day). With that being said, I don't believe this is even comparable to today, due to the upgrade(s) and very positive news from GTAT in the last two months.

      You also have to consider the differences in volume increases over the compared time frames. There has been a more recent strongly increasing volume over the last five days compared to the other periods. I would imagine/hope that this indicated some institutional buys which helps stabilize positions.

      I think it is also important to note that that huge drop you are comparing to occurred over the entire trading day on 08/06/2013. On this day GTAT blew upwards about $1.00 over the first hour. It must be noted that the stock then tailed consistently downward the remainder of the day to finish up $0.30. Over the next few days most of the remaining $0.30 evaporated while the stock stabilized.

      Let's compare that to this last Friday (08/16/2013). So Friday, yes there was a dramatic increase, although about 50% less of a rise than the former big day you are comparing to. This, and the fact that on Friday after GTAT dropped off sharply the stock stabilized just after mid-day and bounced off of and up from about $6.15 to close at $6.27 on a large green volume spike. I think all these things shows some strength that was lacking before.

      So, with all that being said, I see a small/healthy pullback over the next couple days to stabilize but I think/hope (not to the detriment of your health of course) you will go blue in the face holding you're breath for mid $5.00's.

    • RSI clearly doesn't lie, only problem is that it doesn't actually say anything predictive about the price of the stock, at all. Neither did your $3.7 gap.
      I happen to agree that GTAT could move back down to low $5 but your reasoning is just plain BS.

      Past returns do not predict future performance. yes, really.

      Congratulations on dodging most of the profit you could make simply holding a stock that is up 140% from its 52wk bottom.

      • 1 Reply to l_yoni
      • Yoni : You have closed mind on certain issues.
        I have made a great deal of money on GTAT this year & my guess would be more than you have. I have bought and sold between 20K & 34K shares of GTAT numerous times this year in a single order. I have not lost on any trades. I can get in or out in an instant at the cick of my mouse.
        RSI means a lot & is not 100% flawless, but a consistent aid to buy & sell.
        Past chart patterns are also very helpful, and not 100% flawless, but ignoring them is foolish.